Budget phones may vanish as 40% under ₹20,000 could disappear by 2030

The era of budget smartphones is rapidly shrinking. According to a report, more than 230 million annual smartphone shipments priced below $200 (20,000 rupees) will disappear from retail channels worldwide between 2025 and 2030. Data from Counterpoint Research’s ‘Smartphone Shipment Forecast by Price Band’ tool indicates that this segment will contract by approximately 40 per sent by the end of the decade. This decline is occurring even as total global smartphone shipments experience an overall recovery, edging back toward 2025 volume levels.

Why budget phone shipments will decline

The disappearance of the budget segment is largely due to structural aftereffects linked to the sector slowdown projected for 2026-2027. A combination of factors-rising prices for mobile chipsets and memory, more demanding baseline hardware requirements, and manufacturers' decisions to scale back their presence in low-profit markets-has made it increasingly difficult to sustain entry-level devices. The report adds that, because components account for a much larger share of total manufacturing costs in budget devices, manufacturers have virtually no margin to absorb price increases.

It is also noted that consumers are responding in various ways rather than purchasing new budget phones. For instance, users are delaying device upgrades and extending the lifespan of the phones they already own. Some buyers are opting for certified refurbished or second-hand phones, while others are moving up to higher price tiers through installment plans.

"The smartphone market will recover in terms of unit volume, but the affordable segment will not return to its previous state.

The opportunity is shifting toward mid-range devices with better specifications and premium products, although the higher-end categories will not be able to absorb all the lost volume. The result will be a market of similar overall size but substantially different in terms of value and competitive profile. There is also a broader risk regarding connectivity, as the lack of new, affordable smartphones could hinder internet access for first-time technology users in lower-income markets," stated Yang Wang, a principal analyst at Counterpoint Research.

Smartphone shipment recovery projected through 2030

Counterpoint estimates that total smartphone shipment volume will return to around 1.2 billion units by 2030, falling slightly short of the figures projected for 2025. Stagnation in the mid-range sector highlights that sales volume from budget segments does not simply shift to higher categories in a linear fashion. Instead, longer device replacement cycles and a drop in demand from new buyers mean that higher-end ranges will not fully offset the volume lost in the sub-$200 price segment.

In developing and lower-income markets, device affordability remains the primary barrier to mobile internet access. As options priced below $200 disappear, there is a risk that the transition-from basic phones or shared household devices to personal smartphone ownership-will slow down drastically. This slowdown threatens to complicate the long-term efforts of network operators, software developers, and governments aimed at expanding public digital infrastructure, localized content, and mobile financial services.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Kahekashan

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Kahekashan is a passionate technophile with a keen eye for cutting-edge gadgets, emerging technologies, and everything in the digital realm. Raised in a Defence family with strong values and a background in literature, she has consistently pursued excellence in every endeavour. Her last full-time assignment involved content writing with the Indian School of Business.

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