Analysis: Russia's Nuclear-Capable Missile Marks Shift from Cold War Deterrence Doctrine

In its ongoing war with Ukraine, Russia just deployed a nuclear-capable missile, signaling a significant shift in its military developments and potentially a turning point in global security. Mutual assured destruction (MAD), which was a component of the Cold War deterrence doctrine and has long been the cornerstone of the nuclear peace strategy, is blatantly violated by the missile's multiple warheads (MIRVs). This creative use of Russian missile technology raises issues of critical importance for future missile strategy and weapons control.

Is Deterrence Over After the Cold War?

The deterrence hypothesis of the Cold War was based on the idea that nations with nuclear weapons would not launch a first strike because they would surely suffer devastating retaliation. According to this philosophy, nuclear bombs should be used to prevent conflict rather than as actual offensive weapons. However, Russia's recent deployment of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile armed with MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicles) in the war with Ukraine may make this premise obsolete. "Experts, including Hans Kristensen, director of the Federation of American Scientists' Nuclear Information Project, say this is the first time such advanced missile technology has been used in combat."

MIRVs are a tactical military decision, but their use in a Russian missile strike on Dnipro, Ukraine represents a major missile strategy change. The potential for destruction is increased tenfold since MIRVs allow a single missile to carry several warheads, each directed towards a different target. Considerations brought up by this development include the future of nuclear deterrence and if a more aggressive, first-strike posture has replaced it.

Preemptive Resistance's Growing Danger

Although the ideology of the Cold War forbade the use of nuclear weapons, the deployment of MIRVs would encourage first strikes. According to the Federation of American Scientists ' nuclear armaments analysis, these weapons are both powerful enough to be used in a first strike and susceptible enough to be the primary targets of a preemptive strike. Countries may feel compelled to fire their first attack during a crisis in order to neutralize the danger before it is launched due to MIRVs' destructive capacity. This shift could make the volatile nuclear environment more dangerous and threaten existing arms control agreements.

As stated by the Union of Concerned Scientists, adoption of MIRVs increases the risk of nuclear miscalculation. Upon the conclusion of global crises, countries may be faced with the dangerous prospect of a "use them or lose them" scenario, wherein the nation's nuclear capabilities may be catastrophically damaged and an assault would have to be launched first.

A New Phase of Russian Military Strategy Is Entering

Russia's missile technological developments, especially the use of MIRV technology, point to a shift in the nation's overall military strategy. Despite maintaining a purely defensive posture due to the Cold War deterrence doctrine, Russia's actions show an increasing propensity to deploy nuclear weapons offensively. Even while the warheads launched on Dnipro were not nuclear, their use in a conventional missile strike raises major questions about Russia's propensity to use more nuclear-capable missiles in future conflicts.

This shift also reflects Russia's evolving international relations approach, as its actions go against accepted weapons control norms. The deployment of a missile system that can carry several nuclear bombs is an example of Russia breaking nuclear weapons regulations that have existed since the conclusion of the Cold War.

The possibility of Nuclear Escalation and Worries about Global Security

As Russia's military developments occur, concerns regarding the implications for global security issues are intensifying among analysts. Russia's use of nuclear-capable missiles might set a dangerous precedent, especially if other nations with nuclear weapons follow suit. The international community must now confront the issue of whether existing arms control agreements, such as the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), can prevent the spread of Russian missile technology and the development of MIRV capabilities.

Developing nuclear-capable missile systems and making MIRV technology an essential part of their arsenals are nations such as China, Pakistan, and India. Global nuclear dynamics are entering a new, unpredictable era as a result of the proliferation of missile strategy changes in many nuclear-armed countries.

With the proliferation of MIRV technology, nations will likely engage in an arms race as they deploy increasingly sophisticated missiles to achieve strategic parity. There are worries that this can destabilise further since countries might feel pressured to react to crises more quickly and violently.

Will We Witness Another Arms Race?

The recent missile attack by Russia serves as a stark reminder of how quickly the nuclear balance could shift. Previously only discussed in theoretical discussions about nuclear war, MIRVs are now being actively integrated into real-world military planning. The growing usage of MIRV technology in Russia, the US, China, India, and Pakistan is likely to lead to a new nuclear arms race. The likelihood of a nuclear conflict rises as nations like North Korea and Iran develop nuclear-capable missile systems.

Finally, Russia has achieved a turning point in the global nuclear arms race and intensified the Ukraine war by deploying a nuclear-capable missile with MIRV technology. As the world looks on, the implications of this revelation could change nuclear strategy and international relations for years to come. Deploying MIRVs into active conflict undermines the fundamental principle of Cold War deterrence by placing the world in unprecedented danger of nuclear escalation.