Elon Musk might not need to colonize Mars or unleash a fleet of fully autonomous robotaxis to make billions from Tesla. According to a new Reuters analysis, the billionaire could still pocket over $50 billion from his latest compensation package, even if he misses several of the company’s most audacious targets.

Approved in September 2025, Tesla’s ten-year pay package is theoretically worth up to $878 billion if Musk achieves what the board called “transformational” milestones — spanning robotics, AI, autonomous driving, and massive financial growth. The board has repeatedly maintained that Musk would receive “zero” if he fails to meet these objectives.

However, the Reuters investigation reveals a softer reality. The plan’s payout framework allows Musk to earn tens of billions by hitting a few modest targets — such as moderate vehicle sales or software subscription growth — without necessarily transforming Tesla into the revolutionary tech powerhouse he envisions.

In fact, analysts noted that Musk could earn $26 billion just by achieving two relatively easy milestones, a payout greater than the combined lifetime earnings of the next eight highest-paid CEOs, including Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Ellison, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang, as per data from Equilar.

While Tesla is famous for setting lofty ambitions, several auto analysts told Reuters that some new goals appear surprisingly lenient. For example, selling 1.2 million cars annually through 2035 — about half a million fewer than in 2024 — and reaching a $2 trillion valuation could trigger an $8.2 billion reward.

Similarly, certain “innovation” goals seem loosely defined. Six robotics and self-driving experts said Tesla’s milestones around autonomy and robotics offer “ample wiggle room.” The target of 10 million Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions, for instance, doesn’t require the system to actually drive on its own. As University of Miami law professor William Widen noted, the term “Full Self-Driving” is “made-up.” Tesla could meet the goal simply by cutting FSD’s price, currently $8,000 upfront or $99 a month.

The robotaxi goal of one million vehicles “without a human driver” also leaves room for interpretation. Experts said Tesla could classify cars remotely operated or with an in-seat safety operator as fulfilling that requirement — something the company is reportedly already testing in Austin.

Even the milestone for producing one million robots is ambiguous. Two robotics specialists said the description — “any robot or physical product with mobility using AI” — is so broad it could include almost any automated product.

Should Musk meet just two product-related goals and elevate Tesla’s valuation to $2.5 trillion, he could earn $26.4 billion in stock; three such goals with a $3 trillion valuation could yield $54.6 billion, without proving true vehicle autonomy.

While Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management warned that investors may demand more “substance behind the spectacle,” Tesla’s board insists Musk is the only one capable of transforming the company into an AI powerhouse.

Governance experts, however, remain skeptical. Wei Jiang, vice dean at Emory University, said the arrangement gives Musk “a monopoly on Tesla’s top job,” undermining good corporate governance.

The toughest part of the plan may be the profit milestones — from $50 billion to $400 billion in EBITDA — a massive jump from $16.6 billion in 2024. Still, under Tesla’s structure, Musk could earn tens of billions even without meeting profit goals, since each milestone holds equal weight.

Ultimately, analysts like Kevin Murphy of USC say Musk’s targets are “not much of a stretch.” A steady 6.4% annual growth could take Tesla’s value to $2 trillion by 2035, even without revolutionary breakthroughs.

Whether shareholders will continue to back such sky-high rewards for moderate achievements remains Tesla’s next big test.