AI Could Transform 25% of Work Hours, Goldman Sachs Warns

Artificial intelligence is no longer a distant concept — it is rapidly becoming a force that could reshape how millions of people work. A new report from Goldman Sachs has sparked global debate by warning that AI could eventually automate nearly a quarter of all work hours, raising fresh concerns about job security across industries.

The research, led by Goldman Sachs analysts Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong, suggests that AI is advancing fast enough to take over about 25 percent of the tasks currently performed by humans. Using data from the US Department of Labor, the report outlines how AI will not only change job roles but also redefine the skills required in the modern workplace.

However, the analysts stop short of predicting a catastrophic employment collapse. While job displacement is likely, the overall picture is more complex, with productivity gains expected to offset much of the disruption.

White-collar roles face early disruption

Unlike previous waves of automation that hit factory floors first, AI is expected to impact white-collar professions more quickly. Roles involving routine cognitive tasks are particularly exposed. Jobs in data analysis, clerical support, basic programming, accounting, and legal research could see significant changes as AI systems become capable of handling these functions more efficiently.

This shift signals a major transformation for office-based workers who once believed their jobs were safer from automation than manual labor.

Productivity gains could soften job losses

Despite the scale of potential automation, Goldman Sachs sees a strong upside in productivity. The report states, “Our baseline forecast for a 15 per cent AI-driven labor productivity uplift and the historical relationship between technologically driven productivity gains and job loss implies that 6-7 per cent of jobs will be displaced over the adoption period.”

In other words, while some jobs may disappear, the overall economy could grow faster as AI makes businesses more efficient. Historically, productivity booms have eventually led to the creation of new industries and employment opportunities.

Short-term unemployment risks

The transition, however, may not be smooth. The report warns of a temporary rise in unemployment as workers are displaced faster than new roles are created. Goldman Sachs estimates a peak increase in the unemployment rate of around 0.6 percentage points — equivalent to about one million additional unemployed workers at its highest point.

This period of adjustment could be painful for many employees, especially those without access to reskilling opportunities.

History suggests new jobs will emerge

Placing AI in a broader historical context, the report notes that technological revolutions have repeatedly reshaped the labor market rather than destroyed it. As the researchers observe, “Only 40 per cent of workers today are employed in occupations that existed 85 years ago, suggesting that AI will create new roles even as it renders others obsolete.”

They further highlight that “More than 6 million workers are currently employed in computer-related occupations that did not exist 30-40 years ago, while another 8-9 million are employed in roles enabled by the gig economy, e-commerce, content creation, or video games.”

These examples underline how innovation often generates entirely new career paths that were previously unimaginable. https://winna.com/game/originals/plinko

Adaptation will decide the outcome

Ultimately, the report concludes that the future of work will depend on how effectively societies adapt. Governments, businesses, and workers must invest in reskilling, education, and training programs to prepare for an AI-driven economy.

AI may eliminate some roles, but it is also likely to create new ones. The challenge lies in ensuring that workers can move smoothly from declining occupations into emerging fields — turning disruption into opportunity.