Prime Minister Modi’s Visit To Kyiv: A Critical Diplomatic Mission Amid Escalating Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Kyiv couldn't have been more timely. Ukraine has lost 18% of its territory to Russia and is now attempting to shift the momentum with a daring strike in Russia's Kursk region. What’s the situation on the ground, and what might come of this visit?

Just a month ago, Ukraine was displeased with PM Modi, criticizing him for meeting President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on the same day a Russian strike hit a children's hospital in Kyiv, resulting in the deaths of dozens. Given this context, Modi’s visit is loaded with expectations as many wonder if it could lead to some sort of breakthrough.

### The Current War Situation

Ukraine, under significant pressure from a prolonged conflict, launched a significant offensive into Russia in early August — a bold move not seen since World War II. Despite being stretched thin, Ukrainian forces have made surprising progress, capturing over 1,200 square kilometers of Russian territory near Sudzha, largely due to their clever use of tactics and speed, including the deployment of small groups of armored vehicles and FPV drones.

Since August 6, battles have raged around Kursk, with Ukraine inflicting substantial losses on Russian forces, including destroying a reinforcement convoy and causing numerous casualties. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described this incursion as an effort to pressure Russian forces, deliver justice, and create a buffer zone to protect the Sumy region. Meanwhile, President Putin views the attack as Kyiv’s attempt to gain leverage in potential peace negotiations.

### Implications of Ukraine’s Strategy

The big question is whether Ukraine’s bold move will pay off in the long term. Experts like Retired Lt Gen Rakesh Sharma believe that Ukraine could leverage this in future peace talks — but only if they can maintain control over the captured territory in Kursk and fend off Russian advances in Donetsk. However, pushing deeper into Russia, especially as winter approaches, could be overly ambitious.

### PM Modi’s Visit: A Balancing Act

PM Modi’s visit is seen as a delicate balancing act. India has maintained a neutral stance on the conflict, consistently advocating for an end to the war through dialogue and diplomacy. This visit is expected to reiterate that message, though it’s uncertain if it will have any impact given that neither Russia nor Ukraine has shown any willingness to soften their positions.

Former Indian ambassador to Russia, Skand Ranjan Tayal, suggests that Modi will likely reassure Zelenskyy that India remains a friend and is ready to cooperate. Beyond extending humanitarian aid, India might explore agreements with Ukraine in the defense and economic sectors, with some experts suggesting a focus on affordable drone technology, which has significantly influenced the battlefield dynamics.

While PM Modi's visit is loaded with significance, whether it will lead to any substantial outcomes remains to be seen.