Why China’s population continues to shrink

New Delhi: While China has introduced a slew of measures to boost its population demographic, the country’s birth count is shrinking and rapidly shifting as an ageing society, according to a media report.

According to the latest official data, China’s birth count registered a historic low last year -- just 7.92 million births, a 17 per cent drop from 9.54 million the previous year, and the lowest figure since 1949, Myanmar-based MeKongNews reported.

The overall population fell by 3.39 million to 1.4049 billion, while deaths rose to 11.31 million, one of the highest tallies in five decades.

This “underlines the failure of the ongoing accelerated family-support policy and childcare subsidies,” the report said, adding that it reflects “both an ageing society and the lingering demographic imbalance created by decades of restrictive family planning”.

The report also cited concerns shared by Chinese experts on the persisting decline in the population, which is going to reshape the country’s economy, job market, and social impact in the decades ahead.

It flagged concerns on socio-economic challenges like young people marrying late or not at all, rising living costs, housing insecurity, and intense workplace competition, making parenthood less appealing.

“A shrinking and ageing population threatens long-term productivity, strains the pension system, and risks eroding China’s consumer base at a time when the leadership is trying to pivot toward domestic demand-led growth,” the report said.

Meanwhile, the report cited the pronatalist push by Beijing over the past year to boost the country's demographics.

This includes the national childcare subsidy of up to 10,800 yuan ($1,534) per child under three, the most significant family-support measure since the shift to a three-child policy in 2021.

Other measures include expanding insurance coverage for childbirth-related expenses and tightening regulation of the childcare sector and making marriage registration easier while tightening divorce procedures.

From a sharp drop of 6.106 million registrations in 2024 -- the lowest since 1980 -- there are tentative signs of a rebound in marriage.

“Registrations rose 8.5 per cent in the first three quarters of 2025, and some major cities reported sizeable increases, Shanghai up 38.7 per cent, Fujian up 12 per cent. The China Population Association estimates total marriages for 2025 at around 6.9 million, projecting that births in 2026 could edge above 8 million,” the report said.

“However, the number of women of childbearing age is shrinking, fertility intentions remain weak, and parenthood is being delayed. Without far more comprehensive support, affordable housing, better work-life balance, gender-equal employment practices, and reliable childcare, policy tweaks may only slow, not reverse, the demographic slide,” it added.