Demographic alarm in Karnataka, deaths outpace births in seven districts!

Bengaluru: A demographic shift with far-reaching implications is unfolding in Karnataka, where seven districts—Udupi, Hassan, Mandya, Chamarajanagar, Ramanagara, Bengaluru Rural, and Chitradurga—have reported a higher number of deaths than births, according to the Civil Registration System (CRS) data released by the Centre for 2021.

This reversal of the natural demographic trend, where birth rates typically outstrip death rates, marks a critical turning point for the state. In 2019, only three districts—Chamarajanagar, Mandya, and Ramanagara—had reported such a trend. The widening of this phenomenon to four additional districts reflects what experts call a silent but worrying demographic transition.

Meanwhile, Dakshina Kannada (DK), along with 10 other districts, viz. Belagavi, Uttara Kannada, Dharwad, Gadag, Haveri, Davanagere, Chikkamagaluru, Tumakuru, Mysuru, and Bengaluru Urban, is now showing signs of stagnation. Although births still marginally exceed deaths in these districts, the growth margin is narrowing swiftly, pushing them towards a potential demographic tipping point. The trend stands in stark contrast to regions like Kalaburagi, Bidar, Yadgir, Raichur, and Koppal—part of the Kalyana Karnataka region—where higher birth rates continue to sustain population growth. However, even here, districts like Kolar, Chikkaballapur, Shivamogga, Ballari, Bagalkote, and Vijayapura are approaching similar stress zones in terms of birth-death ratios.

The 2021 CRS report underscores that Karnataka is not alone. Across the country, 49 districts have recorded this inversion, with an overwhelming 34 located in south India. Karnataka contributes seven such districts to the list, while neighbouring Tamil Nadu accounts for 17. Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Puducherry make up the rest.

“This trend reflects both the success of socio-economic development and the challenges of a rapidly ageing population,” said a Bengaluru-based demographer. “However, the implications are serious, ranging from labour shortages to shifts in policy priorities and fiscal allocations,” the report stated.