Towards a multi-polar world order

In the past, America had been setting the tone and narrative of every treaty, trade, and conflict, but now the global players Russia, China, and UAE contravene and align their own political and strategic goals. Despite its superior military might, US cannot dictate the global order any longer, and the economic order is multipolar. Japan is also a global economic power and India is also growing rapidly with their global prominence. So, the world will see a multipolar economic order. Digital order is also rapidly emerging and setting the narrative. Here the tone will not be set by the government but the tech partners which will exert on the government

The shocking Hamas assault on Israel has triggered a beginning and an end for many world players. As the Israel-Hamas conflict is getting worse, it is making global political leaders roll their eyes and get unblinded towards world peace and humanitarian aid.

Recently, during a visit to Saudi Arabia, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken faced stiff resistance from the Arab League, trying to convince Egypt’s Abdel Fatah El-Sisi and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to embrace the view of USA towards the Israel-Palestine war and ease out the war. This was not agreed to by the Crown Prince, instead he even kept him waiting for several hours. The meeting which was supposed to happen in the evening was done in the morning as Prince Mohammed bin Salman appeared only in the morning. President Joe Biden is also expected to visit Israel to demonstrate support to Israel to eradicate Hamas and also to ease humanitarian sufferings in Gaza.

It is quite noticeable that the other world players do not consider the world as unipolar anymore with one Super Power. The message was conveyed loud and clear by the Saudi Prince that the failed US administration now looking to ease tensions for its own interests and pursue its maximalist goal of eradicating Hamas cannot advocate its dialogue this time. Not only did America fail in nation-building in Afghanistan and Iraq and drain their budget and politics, but they are also seen fading in their diplomatic presence in the UAE. Like the Middle East (crude oil), Taiwan (semiconductors), Pakistan, Diego Garcia and Okinawa (military bases), Israel has been vital to America since the cold war by being a tool to contain the Soviet Union in the Middle East.

The USA was also helping in normalizing the relations between Israel and UAE. Despite that, things got worse after the militants of Gaza led a multi-force and ghastly on Israel. The tables turned and all diplomatic talks and relations initiated by the USA fell flat. Most of the Arab League supports Palestine and designates Israel’s demand of Gaza as a violation of the 4th Geneva Conventions of War. Be it in the name of humanitarian aid or direct funds, Palestine is getting circumlocutory support from Arabs. In the meeting with the Crown Prince, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken not only faced resistance but also humiliation as the moment the meeting began the Crown Prince demanded an end to the siege of Gaza as well as any military operations.

America had been setting the tone and narrative of every treaty, trade, and conflict, but now the global players Russia, China, and UAE contravene and align their own political and strategic goals.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the confrontation over Taiwan, and nuclear tensions over Iran and North Korea, the crisis is all about global leaders’ structural and geopolitical landscape. The geopolitical recession does not last forever and we expect a new world order. America is no longer the uncontested superpower or the police officer of the world. The uniqueness of this new world order is fated on every global power with its specific domain. For example, as a unipolar security order, America is the only country that can send its soldiers and military hardware, no other nations come close. China is growing rapidly in Asia, yet it is not close to America. Russia’s military has been weakened after the war with Ukraine. In any case, they have nuclear power, but using them is akin to committing suicide. However, the military might not advocate the global order, the economic order is multipolar.

Even though the USA has a robust economy, the global power is shared among other players as well. Both America and China are far too economically interdependent to decouple from each other. The bilateral trade between the two countries keeps reaching new heights. The Chinese market has been stable with an inflation rate of 0.66 %, though expected to rise in coming years. This negative inflation could be because of the trade of oil with the UAE and supplies to Russia, the currency could have gone up. On the contrary, market data speaks differently from economic data for China. The Hong Kong Exchange has gone down by approximately 30% and the Hong Kong Property Index has plunged by 70%. America is witnessing inflation which has risen to 3.7% compared to 3.60 % last month.

Japan is also a global economic power and India is also growing rapidly with their global prominence. So the world will see a multipolar economic order.

Digital order is also rapidly emerging and setting the narrative. Here the tone will not be set by the government but the tech partners which will exert on the government. Technological companies are becoming a critical determinant in defining this new digital order. It was evident in the Russia-Ukraine war, how quickly tech companies of the West went to the rescue of Ukraine to defy Russian cyberattacks. Otherwise, Russia would have vanquished Ukraine within weeks. Whether digital world order will be digital autocracy or digital democracy is yet to be revealed. The analogous Cold War competition between the US and the Soviet Union is vastly different from the 21st century US competition with China. Mark Twain had famously said: “History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes”.

The policymakers should be pushed to establish a comprehensive superpower relationship which is seen as more complicated and fraught than in the 20th century. Western nations and America have to come out from the fallacy of their imposed directions. Since the world will be a multipolar economic and digital power. It is less likely that America will enjoy it say just the way it used to be.

(The author is a geo-political, geo-economic analyst and a columnist)