Russia-Ukraine war and the domino

The full-scale invasion of Russia on Ukraine is more imminent than ever. I had predicted this scenario more than few weeks back. In reality, most wars are not reactive but well-planned geopolitical instruments for acquisition of power. They are initiated with timing and context which suits the initiators best.

In fact, there is more to a war than what ordinary people understand it as.

Today's Russian-Ukraine face-off started way back in 2008, when Ukraine and Georgia appealed to become NATO member nations. A process has been initiated to enroll them into membership, which if completed earlier would have got them the security shield of NATO alliance, in a scenario of geopolitical adversity. However, Russia's preemptive attack on Georgia in 2008 was a pronounced strategic response to a possibility of a NATO member country in their backyard. That was the first 'contained war' of the 21st century in the European Region.

That was not all. In 2014, Russia made another preemptive military attack on Crimea and annexed this peninsula from Ukraine. This pattern of Russian geopolitical control has a history and all actors in the theatre are former members of the fallen USSR [Soviet Union].

The current military invasion on Ukraine has been nudged into action by a possible NATO membership award to Ukraine in next few months, if not weeks.

Russia is not a nation which will stand as a mute spectator, to the prospect of a US military base set-up in its neighborhood, if Ukraine were to become a NATO ally.

Unlike 2008 and 2014, Russia's invasion on Ukraine will not be a 'contained battle' in the former USSR neighborhood or in Europe. This round of invasion has the potential to escalate into a full-blown war within Europe or even upgrade to an all-out war against the western superpowers. 'The Domino Effect' is a huge possibility, keeping in view of the current economic, military and geopolitical context in the West, Europe and in Asia.

Cause & Effect

Unlike past invasions on its neighbours, Russia seems poised and ready for a longer and broader war. As I see it, the current objective is not just annexation of a territory but an overall occupation of Ukraine. This military initiative seems to have a much larger hidden agenda too.

Russia wants to send a terse message to the west, especially to United States of America, United Kingdom and Germany to not meddle in its neighbourhood. Russia's cause is to reestablish its unhindered dominance in Europe. The following effect can be quite repulsive and expansive, if the NATO alliance partners were to act and challenge Russia's military cockiness.

Historically, all wars have had unexpected outcomes. One can surely plan an invasion but not all of its outcomes with accuracy. This is much harder, when there are multiple players who have big stakes in the game.

The China factor

As I see it, no one must overlook China's role in the current escalation in Europe. If China did not have Russia's back and unconditional economic and military support, Russia wouldn't have risked challenging all of Europe and USA like it is doing today.

China has emerged as a global economic superpower. I can clearly see China's explicit desire to arrive as a global military super power too. China has been at it for over a decade, conjuring up the necessary geopolitical strategic positioning in East Asia, West Asia, Central Asia, South East Asia, Africa, Central-South Americas and Europe. It has its enemies surrounded by its proxies through debt diplomacy and rear-end political controls.

China believes it is ready to militarily challenge the existing unipolar global power equation and accomplish a possible transfer of power. China's ultimate ambition is to be the military and economic superpower of the world. It is methodically making its moves. Russian military initiative on Ukraine is just one step forward in that direction.

In a natural consequence to the current escalation in Europe, China will make its move swiftly to claim occupation of Taiwan. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a test to assess the quantum-reaction of United States of America and other European powers, when the event advances to the actual occupation of Ukraine.

China is patiently waiting for the global consequences of Russia's military initiative, for it to initiate its own act.

Challenges to USA

Being a global superpower comes with plenty of baggage. USA is no exception. In over 77 years of its global hegemony as the economic and military superpower, USA has overridden rights of many sovereign nations using premise of global security interest or its own national security interest. This is a natural price to pay for continuation in that position of global power. However, it also strips all sanctity to lecture others about illegality of invasion on sovereign nations. Russia is using this phenomenon as an alibi in the current context. It is brazenly discounting USA's advice, veiled threats and initiation of economic sanctions to stall the military invasion and resume diplomacy.

USA has already been losing out on economic supremacy to China for a while now. In basic economic parlance, if a nation is not producing goods and services of great value that other nations would want to buy, that economy can't be considered of great value. For decades, USA has lost its massive manufacturing sector to China and is eventually losing out its technology sector's edge to it too.

If a nation transforms into a dependent consumer from a robust producer, the economic power declines considerably. If the gaping USD 285 Billion trade deficit of USA with China doesn't say it all, the social change which it brings through loss of labour availability, skill depravation, over-dependence for critical components, loss of technology know-how, and knowledge trade-off are more apparent red flags for a sagging economy.

The Indian dilemma

The Indian government has adopted 'Strategic Silence' as a diplomatic measure to counter the Russia-Ukrainian conflict. This diplomatic measure is a natural and mature choice of the Modi Government. However, this strategic measure will be short-lived when Russia actually invades and occupies Ukraine in few days from now.

India will eventually be compelled into making substantive statements and even actions. It is important for the Indian government to be equipped with few sets of diplomatic and military action plans before February ends.

India's historic proximity in relations with Russia are becoming thinner as days pass. The China connection and its incremental military association with Russia might become a natural deterrent for continuity of any form of cordial relationships with Russia in the near future.

Especially after military action by Russia, the subsequent response from USA, Europe, Africa and other Asian nations can pressure India to take a pronounced stand against Russia's aggression.

I strongly propose that India must take a strong stand of its own, instead of acting under pressure to tow the western line. While Russia claims its right to retaliate and annex Ukraine, China makes a subsequent military move to reclaim Taiwan as its past geography and invade it. India has better reasons than Russia and China to claim its past geography Pakistan, as a consequence of a destabilized world order.

We have to wait and see, if there is enough traction globally to form a 'Rest of the World Block' against 'Russia & China' to counter the duo's global military ambitions. 'Offence is the best form of defence' in the times we are in.

(The writer is a globally reputed organisational strategist & author)