Tall claims are usually made by political parties that they would create millions of jobs, if they are voted to power. Alternatively, in the same vein they also promise unemployment insurance in case of any delay from their side as regards honouring the promise. Data about job creation in India expose the tall claims as there is no scope for generating employment in such a large proportion, implying that promises on this count are unfounded and far away from implementation.

In order to facilitate a meeting between job seekers and job providers, the Union Government launched the “National Career Service” portal on July 20, 2015.

As per the portal’ s dashboard, as of May 26 this year, around 47.51 lakh active employers are registered on the portal, though vacancies are only estimated at 9.59 lakh. As per the 2024-25 annual report of the Union Ministry of Labour and Employment, there are approximately 441.5 lakh job seekers. These statistics reveal the yawning gap between the number of jobs available and the number of job seekers. The figures are reinforced by the data made available by the Director General of Employment (DGE).

It considers persons in the age-group of 15-29 years as youth, whose figure stood at 372.1 million in 2021. This many experts opine is a very low estimate. According to them, there are about 610 million are in the working age. Of this, about 330 million are engaged in the non-farm sector and the livelihood of about 280 million are from agriculture and allied activities. The DGE data will further substantiate the statistics.

The agency conducts the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) from time to time. As per its latest survey, the Worker Population Ratio (WPR) has gone up from 46.8 per cent in 2017-18 to 56 per cent, in addition to a significant rise in the Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) from 49.8 per cent to 57.9 per cent during the same period. Hence, if we consider job creation only for youth, we would be erring in recognising the basic issue of joblessness.

We need to pragmatically consider that about 56 per cent of the population is available and willing to work. In the light of the improvements in life expectancy, re-employment after retirement also needs to be taken into consideration while computing job creation figures.

It is also claimed by many governments that as a major job creator, the IT sector is a panacea for unemployment. The fact of the matter is that these projections are totally different when it comes to ground realities.

As per a NASSCOM report, the Indian IT sector, which was worth $ 254 billion in 2021-22 will rise to $ 350 billion by this year.

By the end of Financial Year 2021-22, the IT industry employed about 5.1 million; and is able to add about 60,000 jobs annually. It is projected that this sector would be able to add about 1.25 lakh a year by the FY 2025-26. Most of the skill development training sessions organized for the youth are aimed at this sector alone. With facts remaining so, where is the question of creating employment by the millions?

In the context of regular and permanent jobs turning scarce, the gig economy is emerging as an alternative employment source for many job seekers.

The gig workforce in the country is estimated at around 10 million now and is expected to grow by about 30 per cent every year. Not surprising that companies like Swiggy, Zomato and Rapido have become household names.

To what extent these activities would secure the future of the youth needs to be pondered.

The Karnataka government recently stopped the operations of Rapido, which it contended was ‘illegal’ under the Motor Vehicles Act. Other States could follow suit as it involves legal validity.

The Central and various State Governments often proclaim that they are releasing ‘job calendars’, charting out timelines for creating jobs. The NDA government at the Centre as assured to create two crore jobs every year. The State governments will not be found wanting on this front. As indicated earlier, the number of job seekers as per NCS portal is 4.42 crore.

Had the promise of two crore jobs a year been fulfilled, by now the scourge of unemployment should have been wiped out by now; unemployment is a stark reality in the country.

The first ever monthly job data published by the Ministry of Statistics and Project Implementation recorded an Unemployment Rate (UR) of 5.1 per cent in April. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), has put the UR at an average of 8.17 per cent for the period 2018 to 2025 (February).

If we compute the number of unemployed persons from the existing data, the figure would be a staggering 4.13 crore as per DGE and 6.6 crore as per CMIE. These calculations are done based on the persons in the age group of 15-29 years only. If we consider the population in the age group of 15-59 years, which is considered realistic in the present context, the number of persons seeking employment would be significantly higher.

Shying away these facts, the parties in power claim that the UR has come down drastically and the numbers have turned negligible. Ipso facto, joblessness is a reality and the claims of the political parties are a fallacy.

(The writer is a former Vice-Chancellor of Acharya Nagarjuna University)