North East strife… deeply rooted in history

The complexity of the North East has been explained in the previous parts of this series, though concisely. The problem of the North East is not confined to the geographical region, thus called, in India alone, but also is impacted – as in the past – by the region beyond. Myanmar (Burma), Thailand, Laos etc.

In addition to the Golden Triangle, the drug trade has extended into the North East in several ways and it also means supply of illicit arms and ammunition from several of these countries. The North East has always been eyed by everybody, if not for anything else, at least to bother India. Pakistan, China, Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh have all played their roles in it.

China may not have supplied its sophisticated arms and ammunition but is known to have supplied replicated weaponry to various groups in India. Pakistan has always taken a keen interest in promoting the drug trade in the North East and its ISI, in the past, had prepared a blueprint, too, which was frowned upon by the then Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif.

India did not take kindly to the insurgencies raging in the region and attempted to curb extremism drastically with full force. Indian forces have been extensively deployed in the region and its intelligence agencies have kept a keen eye on the developments in the region. The armed insurgencies erupting here depended on the Chinese assistance both overt and covert and the drug cartels for the supply of weapons.

All this is a well-documented fact. Whether the Indian media really did take cognizance of the facts and the ground realities here sensibly and in the national interest is also doubtful. Generalised perceptions and popular nuances have been accommodated mostly. But, research done by not only some Indians but also foreigners, especially the Americans, throws a lot of light on the role played by external forces and agencies in shaping the North East imbroglio.

China certainly played a role here but to claim that it has a say and sway over all the insurgencies might also be wrong. The Chinese always preferred to concentrate on Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim areas and have used the disruptions and troubles in the North East to promote its interests to some extent. Intense observers of the region feel that "even if China decides to increase military and financial support for insurgents in India’s North East, it will find it difficult to alter the security situation there.” We must not forget that at one point of time, even Assam wanted to join Pakistan and become a part of the Islamic identity. Pakistan's ISI and army dabbled in the region extensively via Nepal and Bangladesh encouraging insurgencies and armed upsurge.

Rakhine State of Myanmar has no mean role in the troubles of the area. Arms being supplied to the militants of this area also reach the North East group via the Golden Triangle. Indian Army has for long been emphasising on the fact that the small arms available in this region are "mostly (but not only) produced in ordnance factories located in north Myanmar’s Wa state. Under the command of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), this region is a semi-independent statelet strategically reliant on China. The UWSA, and some of the private owners of these ordnance factories, have interests that may or may not coincide with Beijing’s geopolitical calculus.”

Available reports point to the fact that original arms developed by the state-owned China Ordnance Industries Group Corporation Limited, also known as NORINCO, have not been procured by North East rebels for over a decade and a half. Launched in 1988, NORINCO pursued a strategy of indiscriminate, aggressive sales throughout the 1990s and early 2000s to generate profits. This meant selling to North East rebels via NSCN-IM’s Anthony Shimray and Baruah, who, at least in the mid-1990s, even met with NORINCO chief at its Beijing headquarters to sign deals. Beijing is said to have put an end to such overt sales of its arms to non-state actors of the region. Anyway it has not stopped the role of its retired military personnel in supplying the same to the groups in the North East. Drug cartels may not have larger geopolitical schemes and plans, yet they don't leave any opportunity to further their interests and any non-state player, Indian, Chinese, Myanmarese etc could have a role due to personal benefits.

It is always hearsay when it comes to drug trade and nothing could be pinned down on any particular government. North East is a region where everyone suspects the other amid these cross currents and influences. Even a handful of five friends would react differently to any development pertaining to the region. The reason for all this is that intrigue played a major role in shaping the different peoples and their worldview here. Every group here thus developed a feeling that it is inferior to none and this fierce independent nature among them defies political and Statecraft logic.

North East is all about social boundaries but not political boundaries. The first one has been in place since ages and the second one is just regarded as a play of time. There is no way any government could cater to all the demands of all the groups here as these are not habituated to any amalgamation or merger of their culture and ethos with anyone else's. International boundaries blur in the region with ethnic identities spread across and people consider themselves not as Indian, Thai, Myanmarese etc., but more on the lines of their ethnic identities. These groups rush to the rescue of their kin whenever required and this complicates the matter further in case of trouble, for the administration to handle.

Even among the bureaucrats/politicians the same theory applies and it is perhaps difficult to arrive at some common logic. All these factors make it difficult to resolve disputes during conflicts and it is easier to talk of good governance and equality of law and law enforcement in North East positioned in Delhi.

No idea that is Delhi-centric works here. Nothing that is Beijing-centric nor anything that is political works here. In many cases, due to external manipulations and support, these fragmented ethno-political groupings have taken to arms and have adopted a line of confrontation with the state and central administration.

Through political backing, economic assistance, logistic support, military training or arms supplies, the neighbours of India have contributed to the ongoing violence in this region. The very strategic location of the northeast is to its people's detriment. The disaffected groups’ access to intelligence agencies of China, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal does not augur well for them.

The North East is a region where both time and history have conspired together with the ablest assistance of men in power to keep the tribes in turmoil. Only a visionary leadership with great understanding and compassion would resolve the issue. For this to happen, the prerequisite is that the local leadership is taken on board. There is no point in blaming the external forces as these only exploit the 'situation'.

(CONCLUDED)