Ignore disaster mitigation at our own peril

Natural disasters are termed 'Acts of God.' This means that these are beyond our control or predictability and, hence, can't be prevented. We have to suffer these while trying to overcome the devastations.

The other kind of disasters is 'Acts of Man.' We create the disaster deliberately or otherwise, with or without full knowledge of the consequences and suffer in silence because we cannot even blame someone else in the eventuality.

Tokyo is facing this precisely, the second kind of disaster.

Officially the Tokyo Metropolis, is the capital and the largest city of Japan. Formerly known as Edo, its metropolitan area (13,452 square kilometers or 5,194 square miles) is the most populous in the world, with an estimated 37.468 million residents as of 2018; the city proper has a population of 13.99 million people.

Located at the head of Tokyo Bay, the prefecture forms part of the Kantō region on the central coast of Honshu, Japan's largest island. Tokyo serves as Japan's economic center and is the seat of both the Japanese government and the Emperor of Japan. It is the pride of Japan. Rather, it was. Today, Japan is facing a huge problem with the Tokyo Metropolis. In fact, it wishes it did not have such a monstrous Metropolis which only attracts more and more people to it every day leading to multiple problems.

Its government is set to offer up to one million yen (£6,293) per child to persuade families to move out of Tokyo, with the aim of reducing overcrowding in the capital.

An extra 700,000 yen is being added to the 300,000 yen offered at present for relocation due to fears that the nation's population and economy is increasingly concentrated in Tokyo, heightening the potential risk from large earthquakes.

The government also aims to encourage families with children to relocate to regional areas. Tokyo has been recognized as one of the most livable cities in the world, Tokyo was tied fourth with Wellington in the 2021 Global Liveability Ranking. But not any more. The Japanese Government fears its residents are sitting on a powder keg. If a natural disaster like a mega earthquake strikes Tokyo, it not only kills its people but also Japan's economy as Tokyo is the second-largest urban economy worldwide by gross domestic product after New York City, and is categorized as an Alpha+ city by the Globalization and World Cities Research Network.

It is also Japan's leading business hub as part of an industrial region that includes the cities of Yokohama, Kawasaki, and Chiba. As of 2021, Tokyo is home to 37 companies of the Fortune Global 500. In 2020, the city ranked fourth on the Global Financial Centres Index, behind only New York City, London, and Shanghai. Tokyo is home to the world's tallest tower, Tokyo Skytree, and the world's largest underground flood water diversion facility, the Metropolitan Area Outer Underground Discharge Channel (located in Kasukabe, Saitama, a suburb of Tokyo). The Tokyo Metro Ginza Line, opened in 1927, is the oldest underground metro line in East Asia.

Now you understand why the Japanese government seeks relocation of its people quickly, preferably to the rural areas?

We are also witnessing the plight of the urban centres in the US due to the winter storms. Man has the capacity to destroy nature fast and has the capability to, hence, destroy himself even faster. When Indus Valley Civilization got wiped out, it was attributed to severe weather developments. Much before, when the dinosaurs vanished, it was attributable to natural disasters. In the case of Japan, its government has realized that scientists remain poor at predicting epidemics and geophysical hazards, and they are particularly poor at foreseeing earthquakes, which can cause tremendous damage and loss of life.

An expert team of scientists in London which was asked to study and predict the future recently concluded that earthquakes defy their work and its conclusions. It was an honest estimate.

In Japan, the frequency of typhoons and earthquakes is factored into infrastructure spending, emergency drills and other forms of readiness. But even these measures were insufficient during the country's enormous March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

None of the cities is addressing such problems and even if they do so, the situation will still be 'out of hand' when a disaster strikes, due to the population additions it will have by then. Places unprepared for disaster could fare far worse. And because of global environmental changes and a trend toward urbanization, disaster risks are growing.

Research work undertaken by the UK has stated that by 2025, when we will be adding another billion people on the planet, mostly in urban spaces in less developed countries, the world will be least equipped to deal with the tragedies. Secondly, the populations will mostly be above 65 years of age and hence, more vulnerable.

It has also been noted with concern that even if mitigation becomes possible, it will cost money. "Relief in response to a disaster is action-orientated, easy to quantify, readily accountable to donors and media-friendly. In contrast, before a disaster occurs, it is not always obvious what should be done, hard to tell what difference preventative measures will make, and difficult to decide how much to spend. Also if prevention is effective, it may attract little attention," scientists have averred.

Brendan Gormley, former head of the UK Disasters Emergency Committee, who worked on the report, said: "There is a need for a culture change around disaster risk reduction."

Do we, in India, at least look at the possibilities of such scenarios? Do our decision-making agencies understand the importance of probabilistic forecasting and probabilistic predictions? We also have a tendency to castigate the agencies as failures for the non-occurrence of any predicted event. It is nonsense. Hence, our governments, NGOs and others have to make yes-or-no decisions on the basis of forecasts that will likely always be probabilistic as the scientists now suggest.

Cities are lovely and these are great too for their contribution to the economy and to the well being of mankind. Yes. But, the same cities could turn into death traps when disasters strike. History is replete with examples. Even in Mahabharatha we have the example of Dwaraka being sunk.

Remember Pompeii? This ancient city located in what is now the commune of Pompei near Naples in the Campania region of Italy, which, along with Herculaneum and many villas in the surrounding area, was buried under 4 to 6 metres of volcanic ash and pumice in the Eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD. It was a beautiful and prosperous city and was well-planned. (Or shall we say ill-planned)? Why did the citizens die then in such a horrific fashion in a few hours on the fateful day?

Perhaps, we have to be content that we have the 'resilience" to overcome the disasters, manmade or God made. After all, petty politics is primary to our life. We don't have proper developmental plans in the first place. How can we even dream of disaster plans?