The much-awaited results of the Jubilee Hills bypoll are out. This election drew attention of the entire state as it was held nearly two years after Anumula Revanth Reddy was sworn in as the Chief Minister from Congress party.

There were other reasons as well for extra attention the bypoll attracted. The Congress government is close to the half-way mark of its five-year term. Moreover, the grand old party lost all the Assembly seats in the capital city in the 2023 Assembly polls though it romped home to the power with solid victories in the districts. Besides, most of the surveys predicted a victory for the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), the principal opposition party. For that matter, Congress also realised that it was on a sticky wicket as the poll campaign progressed.

Nearly 10 days before the November 11 election, I happened to meet a senior Congress leader who was actively involved in the campaign. He admitted that their party was trailing in most of the divisions in the Jubilee Hills constituency. “But we will definitely bounce back in the coming days,” he told me.

At that point of time, Congress was behind BRS by almost eight percentage points as the sympathy factor was working in BRS’ favour given that its candidate was the widow of the party’s sitting MLA, whose death necessitated the election.

So was the anti-incumbency factor. From that low level, Congress worked its way up as the Chief Minister adopted a strategy known in political circles as ‘carpet bombing’. It is a kind of intensive campaign at multiple locations simultaneously for a longer period. BJP, which tasted success with that strategy in north Indian states, including Uttar Pradesh, deployed it in Jubilee Hills with simultaneous campaigns at 60 locations from afternoon to night on a single day. Thereafter, the Chief Minister also went for this strategy, pushing ministers and other senior leaders for an intensive campaign across the constituency.

He held several roadshows in the areas where Congress was considered weak. This apart, he used the mainstream media to the hilt by addressing media conferences. It is the first time that any Chief Minister was campaigning so aggressively for an Assembly by-election in the two Telugu states. The support from All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) also tilted the scales in Congress’ favour. Muslims accounted for more than 25 per cent of the electorate in the constituency. In the 2023 Assembly polls, AIMIM supported BRS candidate Maganti Gopinath. The Majlis party is known to sail with the ruling party every time and it was no different this time around.

For his part, Revanth has been consistently mentioning what he called ‘secret pact’ between BJP and BRS. During the campaign, he boldly equated Congress with Muslims. Moreover, Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Bandi Sanjay Kumar made a surprise entry. Known for his aggressive pro-Hindutva stance, he lived up to his image by coming up with strong anti-Muslim comments. He went to the extent of alleging that the Indian NationalCongress (INC) had transformed itself into Indian Muslim Congress (IMC). His strong statements obviously pushed Muslims towards Congress, making Revanth’s task easier. Is this an indication that Sanjay intends to re-enter state politics?

Pro-incumbency narrative also helped the Cong’s cause

For its part, BRS also threw up its hands towards the end of the campaign and during the crucial period before the voting. It’s known to do that. It did the same thing during the 2023 Assembly polls. Sensing defeat, it stopped ‘last minute poll management’ in several constituencies in that election to save its resources. Otherwise, it would have won a few more seats had it gone for the kill.

But it was Revanth Reddy who went for the kill and Congress rose from the jaws of defeat Phoenix-like and notched up a stupendous victory with a majority of nearly 25,000 votes to wrest the Jubilee Hills seat.

However, this is not the first time that he has made such an effort in an election. He is known to leave no stone unturned in polls. To explain that in cricketing parlance, he will genuinely try for a victory till the last ball is bowled.

The 2021 Nagarjuna Sagar by-election is a classic example. He went there to campaign for senior Congress leader K Jana Reddy for a couple of days but stayed put there for nearly a week. When I met him in the guest house where he stayed, I asked him why he had extended his stay. “I realised the ground situation when I came here. I have no option”, he explained. He campaigned hard for the Congress despite the fact Jana Reddy’s defeat was imminent. That fighting spirit helped the Congress hold sway in the 2023 elections.

But does the Jubilee Hills verdict reflect the current political ground reality in the state? No, not at all. Frankly speaking, people in many parts of the state are extremely disappointed with the Chief Minister as he was the X factor in the 2023 victory polls and the performance of the government, many feel, is below par. Though the Congress government implemented expensive farm loan waiver, free bus travel for women, power subsidy for households and some other welfare schemes, these did not generate positive vibes among people across the state. A few months back, it spent a whopping Rs 9,000 crore on the Rythu Bharosa scheme, which was called Rythu Bandhu by the BRS government.

That was just one installment. Farmers used to get two installments every year during the BRS regime. Given the scale of poll promises the Congress has made, it is not easy to implement all of them given the debt burden and financial constraints the state is facing. Revanth Reddy should rationalise all welfare schemes so that only those in real need will derive benefit.

For instance, he can reduce the financial burden of the Rythu Bharosa by restricting it to three acres per family to all farming families. Without this kind of rationalisation of welfare schemes, it will be nearly impossible for him to implement pending promises like a hike in old age pensions. Further, his government also needs funds to spend on capital expenditure, including infrastructure. Without this spending, the economy will not gain steam.

Moreover, the state is in the grip of a pessimistic narrative as the Chief Minister has frequently been pointing out about lack of funds. The state is also facing liquidity crunch thanks to pending bills running into thousands of crores from the government. There is a strong feeling among people that corruption has skyrocketed during Congress rule and Revanth Reddy has failed to control it. Further, the state will also face challenges in attracting investment as there is now stiff competition from Andhra Pradesh, especially after Nara Chandrababu Naidu came to power. That way, Revanth Reddy has his task cut out when it comes to implementing poll promises and putting out a positive narrative about the state. Reining in corruption and protracted delays in the implementation of government decisions is also a big challenge for him. So is also the task of putting the state administration in order.

Some first time Cong MLAs are behaving like there is no tomorrow and are ‘tapping’ every opportunity in their respective constituencies. The Congress high command should give him a free hand to rein in such things and run the state effectively.

Further, as the Chief Minister, he has the responsibility to clear pending dues and put the state on a higher growth trajectory. No one else will do that. If he continues to blame the debt burden left behind by the previous BRS government and non-co-operation of the Centre for the state’s ills, people may think that he is shirking responsibility by buying excuses.

In August 2018, I wrote in this column on why Congress should encourage leaders like Revanth in states to bounce back nationwide. I had also written in that column that Rahul Gandhi would not make the cut until he turns street smart and takes up causes that would benefit most people. Both of my predictions have come true.

But Revanth’s progress in politics is a lot faster than I expected while that of Rahul is way too slow. Is it right to say dismal? But let me save Rahul’s topic for some other day.

This time, it has been a Revanth show all along in the JH bypoll. Will he leverage the remarkable victory, put the state administration in order and the state economy on a higher growth path? Time will tell.

As for the BRS, it is still the alternative to the Congress in the state despite the Jubilee Hills shocker while BJP, as things stand, has lots of catching up to do.