California's climate plan could help speed up energy transformation in world

Davis: California is embarking on an audacious new climate plan that aims to eliminate the state's greenhouse gas footprint by 2045, and in the process, slash emissions far beyond its borders. The blueprint calls for massive transformations in industry, energy and transportation, as well as changes in institutions and human behaviours. These transformations won't be easy.

Two years of developing the plan have exposed myriad challenges and tensions, including environmental justice, affordability and local rule. For example, the San Francisco Fire Commission had prohibited batteries with more than 20 kilowatt-hours of power storage in homes, severely limiting the ability to store solar electricity from rooftop solar panels for all those times when the sun isn't shining.

More broadly, local opposition to new transmission lines, large-scale solar and wind facilities, substations for truck charging, and oil refinery conversions to produce renewable diesel will slow the transition. I had a front row seat while the plan was prepared and vetted as a longtime board member of the California Air Resources Board, the state agency that oversees air pollution and climate control. And my chief contributor to this article, Rajinder Sahota, is deputy executive officer of the board, responsible for preparing the plan and navigating political land mines. We believe California has a chance of succeeding, and in the process, showing the way for the rest of the world.

In fact, most of the needed policies are already in place. What happens in California has global reach What California does matters far beyond state lines. California is close to being the world's fourth-largest economy and has a history of adopting environmental requirements that are imitated across the United States and the world. California has the most ambitious zero-emission requirements in the world for cars, trucks and buses; the most ambitious low-carbon fuel requirements; one of the largest carbon cap-and-trade programs; and the most aggressive requirements for renewable electricity.

In the US, through peculiarities in national air pollution law, other states have replicated many of California's regulations and programs so they can race ahead of national policies. States can either follow federal vehicle emissions standards or California's stricter rules. There is no third option. An increasing number of states now follow California. So, even though California contributes less than 1 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, if it sets a high bar, its many technical, institutional and behavioural innovations will likely spread and be transformative.

What's in the California blueprint The new Scoping Plan lays out in considerable detail how California intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 48 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030 and then achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. It calls for a 94 per cent reduction in petroleum use between 2022 and 2045 and an 86 per cent reduction in total fossil fuel use. Overall, it would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 85 per cent by 2045 relative to 1990 levels. The remaining 15 per cent reduction would come from capturing carbon from the air and fossil fuel plants, and sequestering it below ground or in forests, vegetation and soils.

To achieve these goals, the plan calls for a 37-fold increase in on-road zero-emission vehicles, a sixfold increase in electrical appliances in residences, a fourfold increase in installed wind and solar generation capacity, and doubling total electricity generation to run it all. It also calls for ramping up hydrogen power and altering agriculture and forest management to reduce wildfires, sequester carbon dioxide and reduce fertiliser demand. This is a massive undertaking, and it implies a massive transformation of many industries and activities. Transportation: California's No. 1 emitter Transportation accounts for about half of the state's greenhouse gas emissions, including upstream oil refinery emissions. This is where the path forward is perhaps most settled.

The state has already adopted regulations requiring almost all new cars, trucks and buses to have zero emissions – new transit buses by 2029 and most truck sales and light-duty vehicle sales by 2035. In addition, California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard requires oil companies to steadily reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels. This regulation aims to ensure that the liquid fuels needed for legacy cars and trucks still on the road after 2045 will be low-carbon biofuels. But regulations can be modified and even rescinded if opposition swells. If battery costs do not resume their downward slide, if electric utilities and others lag in providing charging infrastructure, and if local opposition blocks new charging sites and grid upgrades, the state could be forced to slow its zero-emission vehicle requirements. The plan also relies on changes in human behaviour.

For example, it calls for a 25 per cent reduction in vehicle miles travelled in 2030 compared with 2019, which has far dimmer prospects. The only strategies likely to significantly reduce vehicle use are steep charges for road use and parking, a move few politicians or voters in the US would support, and a massive increase in shared-ride automated vehicles, which are not likely to scale up for at least another 10 years. Additional charges for driving and parking raise concerns about affordability for low-income commuters.

Electricity and electrifying buildings - The key to cutting emissions in almost every sector is electricity powered by renewable energy. Electrifying most everything means not just replacing most of the state's natural gas power plants, but also expanding total electricity production – in this case doubling total generation and quadrupling renewable generation, in just 22 years. That amount of expansion and investment is mind-boggling – and it is the single most important change for reaching net zero, since electric vehicles and appliances depend on the availability of renewable electricity to count as zero emissions. (The Conversation)