When a billion hearts leapt… and flumped

Why did everyone jump on a mere screenshot on social media? Blame it on the heat of the moment. Amid the heat and dust of electioneering in the five States, with big implications for 2024 General Elections, anything - a trifle remark or quote or report - can turn into an issue of conflagration. On November 19, a post with a screenshot went viral on X. It showed live tracking of GDPs, attributing it to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

India’s economy surpassed the $4 trillion mark, as per the post. Netizens lapped it up and sent it across the network, causing widespread astonishment and wonderment.

Politicians played it up with glee, suiting their stance. Analysts, economists, business honchos partook of the excitement. Even Central ministers shared the tweet. As the situation seemed to benefit the BJP-led NDA government, harried Congress leaders verified it as fake. They were quick to denounce it as a mischief by the propaganda machine of the saffron party. Congress called it a pathetic attempt at both sycophancy and headline management by the BJP.

Mysteriously, the Central government kept silent. Finance ministry or National Statistical Office or any agency did not fact-check to stop the false euphoria. If India did cross the $4 trillion mark, it would have closed in on Japan and even surpassed it to become the fourth largest economy in the world, after US ($26.9 trn), China ($17.7trn) and Germany ($4.4trn).

Now, a query springs up quietly as to if and when India can become the fourth largest economy. India is not there yet; however, it is on right path to cross the Japan milestone. By when? Well, it depends on the pace of economic activity and avoiding many a pitfall. But, take heart that India is already the fifth largest economy at $3.75 trillion, leaving behind United Kingdom. This India achieved despite several challenges, including COVID-19.

India was one of the fastest-growing major economies in FY22/23 with 7.2% growth rate, which was the second highest among G20 countries and almost twice the average for emerging market economies.

At the current pace of growth, many economists prophesied, it will take India 3 years to surpass Japan to become the fourth largest economy. PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry predicts the Indian economy will hit the $4 trillion mark in FY25. But, India needs to crank up and grow at 8-9% for the next 20 years to become a developed nation by 2047 – India’s hundredth year of independence – as envisioned by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It is not easy. Judge from this: India’s real GDP will grow at 6.3 per cent in 2024, while the growth was estimated at 6.4 per cent for 2023, says American brokerage firm Goldman Sachs. As for the impediments on the path of spiralling growth, India has to keep raising the bar: target higher levels of investment, create more jobs, improve productivity in all fields, especially in agriculture, boost health and education, adopt technologies and raise capacities to withstand macroeconomic shocks, geopolitical storms etc. Deceleration and stagnation of domestic demand are key worries, to begin with. A developed economy means high levels of per capita income, level of industrialisation, standard of living and technological infrastructure. Also primary, is scaling up the human development index, which measures education, health, literacy etc. The challenges stare in the face of our hugely populated nation.