UP Polls: A crucible of caste equations

Uttar Pradesh is slated to go in for phase-I polls on February 10. This time the elections gain more importance since they are being held under different circumstances. There are no public meetings, no rallies, and not much of door-to-door campaign. Just as the Union Budget has given a booster shot to infra and digital sectors, the ECI has made parties go for digital campaign, thanks to Covid-19.

Incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is making all-out efforts to create history to become the Chief Minister for second consecutive term, while Akhilesh Yadav who has been out of power for five years seems to have matured a little more and is trying to pull the rug from under the feet of Yogi. Though analysts and opinion polls indicate that BJP's firebrand Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath continues to be ahead in the popularity chart and would be back in driver's seat though the party may lose part of its vote share, the fight definitely is going to be a tough one.

There are about 15 crore voters who will be electing 403 members in seven phases starting February 10 to March 7. In the first phase, the western parts would exercise their franchise.

A lot depends on whom would the Dalits favour. Interestingly, this time the campaign is focussed more on other backward classes and Jats. Muslims and Brahmins occupied more space in poll narrative; however, history indicates that it is the Dalit voters who decide who should rule UP. A good number of OBC leaders this time switched loyalties to Samajwadi Party. The BSP led by Mayawati is somehow lethargic though it was once considered to be the voice of Dalits.

Dalits in UP constitute about 22 per cent of population and consist of about 65 different castes. Till 1980s the Dalits were the vote bank of Congress party. Then came a time when at many places Dalits were not allowed to vote by dominant castes and their musclemen. It was in this background that the BSP led by its founder Kanshi Ram came into existence and gained strength and in 1995 the BSP led by Mayawati came to power. Out of 86 reserved seats, 84 were won by Dalits. In 2017, the BJP and its allies in 2017 swept the polls in 76 out of 86 reserved seats.

The question now is whom will Dalits support? Will they go with BSP as Mayawati still hopes, though she has lost grip, or will they support the SP or the BJP? In the last election, the Jatavs were won over by the BJP and the SP. If the SP can get a majority share of the dalit votes along with Muslim votes, the going for BJP could be tough. But the possibility of Congress splitting the dalit votes cannot be ruled out. If that happens then the BJP may have an edge. The BJP is banking on the pro- poor schemes it had launched since 2017. One thing is clear, the battle is between BJP and SP and is poised for an interesting fight.