Prigozhin’s death may slow Wagner ops in Africa

The Wagner Group, a thousands-strong private military force, has in recent years become one of Russia’s most influential foreign policy tools. It has played a significant role on the battlefields of Syria and Ukraine and, recently, worked to expand its footprint in Africa. The group has operated in several African countries since 2017, often providing its clients with direct military support and related security services alongside propaganda efforts.

What happens now to Russia is not anyone’s concern after the silencing of its chief Prigozhin. But, what happens to those African nations that were impacted by the Wagner Group one way or the other will be of interest to all. This multi-organ group of mercenaries has dominated the political and military systems of the countries wherever it entered. Largely, it helped serve the Russian interests as against the West, it could be said.

Founded by Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group is a prominent Kremlin-linked private military company (PMC). It first emerged in 2014 during Russia’s annexation of Crimea and has since operated in Syria and at least a half dozen African countries. Rather than a single entity, Wagner is a complex network of businesses and mercenary groups whose operations have been closely tied to the Russian military and intelligence community. It is estimated to have some five thousand members stationed across Africa, a combination of former Russian soldiers, convicts, and foreign nationals.

Most of the African nations in which the group dabbled are volatile and political uncertainty dominates those. Wagner Group spread its tentacles not only in their militaries but also forayed into other areas of its interests like businesses. Russia’s main goal in Africa has been to drum up support to its policies through these countries in the world. Prigozhin was its pointsman everywhere. The establishment silently operated behind the veil and kept a tight leash on these countries under Wagner’s control. It should be noted that the US branded the group as a transnational criminal organization.

The Wagner Group has often provided security services and paramilitary assistance and launched disinformation campaigns for troubled regimes in exchange for resource concessions and diplomatic support. Wagner is most active in the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya, Mali, and Sudan, all of which have a tenuous relationship with the West due to colonial legacies and inherent political differences, it is said. An irony is that the group worked with the goverments as well as their rivals and rebels simultaneously.

The group acted as a security service for vulnerable regimes. The group served as a part of a personal protection detail for some leaders in Africa. Elimination its chief will also impact Russia to some extent. It now has to look forward to creating another Prigozhin. What happens to African nations that were influenced by the Wagner group? Which way the ruling control in these tilts now? Most of the African nations have become pawns in the hands of superpowers in their political and economic games.

Russia’s move to neutralise Prigozhin has far-reaching consequences for all these nations. The Russia-Ukraine clash has only acquired a wider proportion. The developments in those African countries under Wagner’s interference will see intense rivalry between Russians and the Americans which will only worsen the conditions for the people of these nations.