Opposition unity: More of a pipe dream or a possibility?

June 23 meeting of the anti-BJP Opposition is going to be a crowded affair. At least 20 opposition parties, from various States, with varied interests and mutual suspicion and as much acrimony are set to thrash out a common programme to take on the BJP juggernaut in the 2024 elections. The latter is blessed in many ways. Two terms complete, it will be facing “a united Opposition’ as disunited as ever in the general elections.

All those converging at Patna for the UPA-III experiment should understand, at the outset, that it’s more of a compulsion that is bringing them together. It is an effort at self-preservation. Thanks to the “Hindutva” injected politics, the political landscape has altered a lot in favour of the BJP. Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine was fully aware of the possibilities that a weakened Congress could pose in the elections. This has led to strong regional parties in States like Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Delhi and Punjab. Karnataka Assembly elections came as an oxygen shot to the ailing Congress party which anyway would attribute the victory to the Congress high command. But, Karnataka had been electing governments on lines similar to that of Rajasthan and Kerala of late.

So, it is not yet known whether the Karnataka voters would vote for the Congress again the Lok Sabha elections is not known yet. This is an unknown factor. Notwithstanding this, the Congress party’s ego is at a new high now that could force it to be unfair in its demand. The minority vote would choose the strongest candidate against the BJP in the northern belt usually. The Congress should not forget this and make unreasonable demands from the regional parties. Again, the return of the Congress to the pole position also means a blow to the sub-regional parties that are usually personality oriented and command a dedicated vote bank, however small it may be in its pockets. The bargaining mandi at Patna should also keep this mind. But it is not going to be easy.

There will certainly be a clash of interests over the imaginary strengths and real strengths here. The TMC is very clear that it would not allow the other parties to seek a good share of seats. It is quite difficult for Mamata Banerjee with her violent politics to accommodate the others at the cost of her own people. Will she agree to negotiate reasonably for the Lok Sabha seats? Nitish Kumar himself will be comfortable retaining his power in Bihar as he knows that the Congress would never make him a consensus candidate for the Prime Minister’s post.

The position of Akhilesh Yadav or Stalin will not be any different. As for Kejriwal, he has already indicated that Punjab and Delhi should be left to him. Anyway, the priority of these leaders is neither democracy nor national interest as is well known. These are all afraid of the carrot and stick policy of the BJP and its use of the CBI, ED and IT etc against its rivals. Most vocal of the critics of Modi, K Chandrashekar Rao, has already fallen “in line” and is attacking only the Congress nowadays. Taking on the BJP requires a meticulous groundwork based on real strengths. A lot of ‘sacrifice’ is required and also a lot of patience. Pro-BJP forces have a clean choice, but not the other alternative.