Much at stake for Congress in Wayanad

The focus is back on Wayanad Assembly byelection in Kerala as the AICC general secretary Priyanka Gandhi makes her political debut here. If she wins, it would be interesting to see the siblings in parliament together. The bypolls have generated greater interest than the general election when Rahul Gandhi contested for the second time earlier this year. Some describe this as David V/s Goliath while others question whether it is a gamble by Priyanka or if it will be a game-changer.

Congress considers this to be the safest seat as it had saved the face of Rahul Gandhi at a time when he lost from Amethi in 2018 as he won by a massive 64.8% vote share. In 2024, he retained the seat defeating CPI runner-up Anie Raja by 3.64 lakh votes though the winning margin fell to 59.69%. On the other hand, the Congress-led United Democratic Front candidates saw their winning margin increase sharply. Rahul vacated Wayanad as he decided to retain Rae Bareli seat.

Priyanka, who is considered to be a high-profile candidate, will be facing Sathyan Mokeri of CPI. Mokeri has been an MLA from Nandapuram in the past. The CPI feels that the people of Wayanad had seen Rahul Gandhi as a PM candidate and voted for him but now that is not case. Moreover, they are not happy as their voice was never echoed in Parliament, it feels.

The CPI is confident that the minority votes which can make an impact would go for a local candidate. The left party feels that since BJP is seen as anti-minority, it will lose deposit, and the fight will be between the CPI and the Congress with advantage to the CPI. However, the ground reality is that Congress is strong in Wayanad which has seven Assembly constituencies spread across three districts.

The Lok Sabha seat was split across three constituencies – Calicut, Cannanore and Manjari. In the last nine elections, the Congress won Calicut and Cannanore six times each, but never won Manjari. The Left parties won Calicut and Manjari just once, and Cannanore three times. The IUML won Manjari in every other poll.

The presence of BJP is marginal here. It never had a strong foothold in Wayanad. It starts its campaign with about 35% disadvantage as this Lok Sabha constituency has a large number of minority voters. But the party claims Priyanka is a proxy candidate and people have realised that the high-profile candidates failed to air their issues in Parliament and the constituency did not develop as expected.

BJP’s accidental candidate Navya Haridas, who has been a councillor from Kozhikode for over a decade, is young and dynamic. A software engineer by profession and a Malayalee, she had contested 2021 Assembly elections. The BJP certainly must woo a large number of voters and knows well that the demography does not suit the saffron party.

Navya says that except for family background, Priyanka has nothing to claim as her strong point. People want someone with whom they can directly communicate in their own language and who can highlight their grievances in Parliament and develop their constituency. She claims there is a sense of desertion by Congress and people do not want to waste their vote for third time. Rahul could not even get a fully equipped medical college for Wayanad. Only a district hospital was upgraded as a medical college and it lacks facilities. Roads are in bad shape and traffic snarls are a common problem. A vote for BJP would certainly help the constituency develop, she claims.

For the present, Congress certainly seems to be in an advantageous position. But then a lot depends on micromanagement on polling day and the voter’s behavioral pattern on November 20. Haryana elections has proved that it is time for pollsters, analysts and exit polls to take a break and that voters should not be taken for granted.