Hindi heartland polls to set the tone for 2024

With Karnataka elections over, the Congress and the BJP have started gearing up for polls in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The last round would be towards the end of the year and this would also include polls in Telangana and Mizoram.

Will Karnataka results be repeated in the Hindi heartland? Where does each party stand during the polls? Let’s take a look at three important northern states – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The polls will prove to be crucial for both the saffron and the Congress parties. Rajasthan is known to be a state which like Karnataka does not vote for the same party consecutively. Moreover, there is a feeling among the people that the Congress party has failed to deliver.

But it is not the case with Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh where ruling parties had come to power for the second time in the past. As of now, the ground situation in Chhattisgarh indicates that the Congress has the chance to return to power. Bhupesh Baghel-led government had won 68 out of 90 seats in the last elections. The BJP secured only 15 seats. After the bypolls, Congress now commands 71 seats while the BJP has only 14 seats in the assembly. The ground reports indicate that the BJP may increase its seat share but the Congress would still have an edge by getting over 50 seats as against a simple majority of 46 seats. With AAP having been recognised as national party, it will also jump into the fray. If it manages to get a vote share of about 3 per cent and joins hands with Congress as part of larger efforts towards an anti-BJP opposition unity, then Congress would be in the driver’s seat more firmly. This being the first attempt of AAP in Chhattisgarh, to what extent the voters will accept it needs to be watched. In the last elections, the BSP tried its luck and bagged 7 seats.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP was in power between 2003 and 2018 for three consecutive terms. What is significant here is that both the BJP and the Congress have equal vote share. A marginal swing of two per cent is enough to tilt the scales. Hence, it will be a close fight.

The north eastern state of Mizoram is scheduled to go to polls in October. Though till recently, Congress was a major force here, for the past few years it has been losing out in the region. On the other hand, the BJP gained a foothold. In 2018 assembly election, the Congress got decimated.

While once again, Modi will be the BJP’s face in all these elections, CM Bhupesh Baghel and Rahul Gandhi will be the star campaigners in Chhattisgarh. These elections, not Karnataka results, will prove to be very crucial – both for the BJP and the Congress – as it will set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Another issue that needs to be watched is to what extent the decision of RBI to withdraw Rs 2,000 notes would reduce cash flow in these polls. With Rs 500 notes still in circulation, pollsters feel that the cash flow would continue to be high unless the NDA government decides to withdraw them as well. In such a case, Rs 100 notes will be the highest denomination and it would not be so easy to buy votes. The present exercise to withdraw Rs 2,000 may only help in knowing how much money has been exchanged or deposited.