Congress back in reckoning: A wakeup call to BJP

Polling in all the five states, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Mizoram, are over and the fate of the contesting candidates is sealed in the EVMs. These elections are being seen as semi-finals ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. The results of these five states would have a deep impact on the outcome of the mega battle between BJP-led NDA and bloc I.N.D.I.A.

While the results would be declared on December 3, the exit polls present an interesting scenario. In Chhattisgarh, BJP had certainly gained as far as women votes are concerned and Congress has gained male votes. BJP seems to be in an advantageous position in tribal belt where people are unhappy that the government did not fulfil promises. Even youth are disenchanted with Baghel as 44% voted for BJP and 37% for Congress. However, those above 61 voted more for Congress. While 46 per cent voted for Congress, 39 voted for BJP. This is the situation despite intense campaign by young leaders of Congress – Rahul and Priyanka. In terms of popularity, Baghel gets 31% and Raman Singh 21% as popular CM. It is certainly a cliff-hanger situation in Chhattisgarh.

In the case of Rajasthan, one can certainly say Congress is giving a close fight though indications are BJP may have an edge. Exit polls are divided on this issue. While some give clear edge to BJP others feel that its neck to neck. But one thing is certain Gehlot’s delivery of welfare schemes has gone down well with the people. In urban areas, BJP had done well while in rural areas Congress seems to have performed better. If BJP gets 90 seats with 13 independents most of whom are BJP sponsored, it can come to power. Congress feels it would get 86 and with some independents it can form government. The situation in Rajasthan is similar to that in 1993.

In Madhya Pradesh, BJP seems to be ahead of Congress and the difference could be huge. BJP is expected to get about 151 seats while Congress may get 74 to 86. Bhopal where Congress had pinned hopes seems to be losing two seats there. In tribal belt of Nimar, Congress seems to be losing. It is a big blow to Congress. In Bundelkhand, BJP had done well last time and seems to be ahead even this time. Samajwadi Party and Congress differed, and Congress refused to share seats with Samajwadi Party. In Chambal Congress rebellion was there also BJP seems to be ahead.

In Telangana, the pink party seems to be in trouble. The car if exit polls are to believed will become the main opposition with anything between 45 to 50 seats.

Well this could prove to be a roadblock for the BRS which claimed that it would enter Maharashtra and then take on the national parties during Lok Sabha elections. Ab Ki Baar Kisan Sarkar was their slogan.

This exit polls of semi finals indicates that the fight in Lok Sabha is going to be a very curious one. BJP need not feel so very happy. Congress has certainly made some comeback but then what remains to be seen here is in the semi finals it was Congress alone not bloc INDIA. During LS polls it will have to make many compromises if bloc INDIA has to remain united during seat sharing.

If not handled properly, this may benefit the BJP. If one looks at the predictions of semi finals, one should not hesitate to say that the aura of Modi ji is not the same as it was earlier. Hope BJP understands it and gears up for the battle.