All Set For Polls ‘Semi-Final’ Ahead Of 2024

Indian elections are the BIGGEST POLITICAL EVENT in the entire world. It now remains to be seen whose swansong will they prove to be in states and what would be its impact on the Lok Sabha elections to be held about six months from now.

Over 161 million people in five states across India’s heartland, south and north eastern fringes will vote in assembly elections next month. They collectively account for a sixth of India’s 945 million voters. It will be an indicator of the direction of the 2024 elections. The toughest battles are in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan where both key players — BJP and Congress - have their unique challenges.” The BJP controls Madhya Pradesh and Congress controls Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, where there are early signs of a tight race. The party is fielding heavyweights, including some federal ministers, and banking on Modi’s popularity. Congress is offering farm loan waivers, allowances for women and free electricity.

These elections undoubtedly pose a serious challenge for the opposition bloc and will be the first major electoral exercise after the formation of I.N.D.I.A… It also comes close on the heels of the release of the caste survey by Bihar government which indicates that the backward communities in that state make up for nearly two thirds of the population. This clearly states that the Lok Sabha polls will see caste discourse in the 2024 elections which would be held soon after the results of the five state Assemblies. The Congress party which has been making promises that it would go in for caste survey if voted to power in the Assembly elections hopes that it would win in at least two or three of the five states. But according to present indications, the role of opposition bloc would not be there and it would be a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress party in four out of five states. In the fifth state Telangana it would be BRS Vs Congress.

Notwithstanding the high-profile visits by political tourists of the BJP and claiming that they would come to power, the BJP would end up with single digit seats. Even before the social media wings of all parties become hyperactive, the general feeling among the people is that BJP’s votes in most of the constituencies would be transferred to the ruling BRS.

There are two interesting factors that have come to light. One an undercurrent of anti-incumbency factor and unhappiness over non implementation of many promises particularly from the poorer sections like street vendors and agricultural labour etc. But those who are enjoying the benefits like Rythu Bandhu feel that while the Congress was giving guarantee card, the present government was giving money. “A bird in hand is better than two in the bush,” attitude is also equally strong.

What would really matter is the thinking of the first-time voters and unemployed youth. Similarly, the good percentage of those who did not get benefits of either direct cash transfer or houses or any other such benefits.

The 2023 polls have also given clear indication that money would flow faster than water in any of the rivers. The competition is going to be tough. Having gained enough experience, the political parties it appears have already stacked the funds in various constituencies in all poll-bound states including Telangana. What the officials seize every day is just peanuts. It cannot and will not be stopped as no political party wants it to stop. In fact, it is high time, politicians stop giving discourse on corruption and take the stand as Indira Gandhi had once stated in Rajya Sabha that corruption is a global phenomenon.