Volatility creeps in as resistance shifts up, support slips

Volatility creeps in as resistance shifts up, support slips
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Resistancelevel moved up marginally by 350 points to 25,000CE, while the support level declined by 600 points to 24,000PE and it’s indicating widening range of trading for the week ahead. Further, rising Implied Volatility (IV), when compared with previous week, is pointing to significant price fluctuations as well. The 25,000CE has highest Call OI followed by 25,100/ 25,500/ 25,200/ 24,900/ 25,400/ 25,800 strikes, while 25,000/ 24,900/25,100/25,200/ 25,400/ 25,500 strikes recorded hefty build-up of Call OI. And no major Call OI fall is seen.

Coming to the Put side, maximum Put OI is visible at 24,000PE followed by 23,800/24,200/ 24,300/ 24,700/ 25,000/ 24,900/25,100/ 25,200 hold moderate to heavy Put OI. Further, 24,900/ 24,400/ 23,800/ 22,600/ 23,800 strikes witnessed reasonable addition of Put OI. Marginal Put OI decline is seen from 25,000PE ITM strikes inwards.

Dhirender Singh Bisht, associate vice-president (technical research-equity) at SMC Global Securities Ltd, said: “In the derivatives market, prominent Call OI for Nifty seen at the 25,000 and 25,100 strike, while the notable Put OI was at the 25,000 and 24,800 strikes. In the upcoming session, the 25,000 mark will be crucial for Nifty, as it also holds psychological significance. A sustained move above this level could trigger further upside momentum. For Bank Nifty, the prominent call open interest was seen at the 56,000 strike, whereas marginal put open interest at the 55,000 strike.”

Short buildup in BSE, RVNL, HFCL, Indigo highlights bearish sentiment as price declines are accompanied by increasing OI. It’s indicating that traders are opening new short positions.

“Nifty rose by almost one per cent this week, while Bank Nifty lagged, slipping 0.35 per cent on the weekly charts. Market sentiment stayed positive, supported by GST reforms and JP Morgan’s maintain ‘overweight’ rating on Reliance. Among sectors, auto, consumer durables, and realty led the gains, whereas PSU, defense and PSU banks underperformed,” added Bisht.

For the week ended August 22, 2025, BSE Sensex closed at 81,306.85 points, a net recovery of 709.19 points or 0.87 per cent, from the previous week’s (August 14) closing of 80,597.66 points. NSE Nifty too rebounded by 238.80 points or 0.96 per cent to 24,870.10 points from 24,631.30 points a week ago.

India VIX rose 2.86 per cent to 11.70 level. “Implied Volatility for Nifty’s Call options settled at 9.93 per cent, while Put options concluded at 10.77 per cent. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 11.37 per cent. The Put-Call Ratio of Open Interest stood at 1.00 for the week,” remarked Bisht.

Bisht forecasts: “Although Nifty gave up most of its weekly gains on the last trading day, it still trades above its long-term exponential moving averages. Immediate resistance lies at 25,000, and a close above it may move toward 25,200–25,300. On the downside, support is placed at 24,800, with a break below potentially extending the fall to 24,500. Traders should keep a close watch on these key levels before taking positions.”

Elevated short additions by FIIs remained intact despite recovery in the last week. FIIs’ net shorts in index futures declining in last couple of sessions to 168,000 from 182,000 contracts. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty recorded addition of short positions, according to ICICIdirect.com. Futures positions in the options segment were negative as well.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty NSE’s banking index closed the week at 55,149.40 points, 192.45 or 0.34 per cent higher from the previous week’s closing of 55,341.85 points.

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