Robust collections to bring down fiscal deficit

Mumbai: Despite an additional expenditure of Rs 3.73 lakh crore announced earlier this month, the government is set to undershoot the fiscal deficit target by 20 bps at 6.6 per cent on the back of overall robust revenue collections and under-spending by many ministries, according to a report. Rising revenue will take care of the additional expenditure planned, it added. The India Ratings report came a day after the Reserve Bank in its second financial stability report for the current fiscal said the government would miss the 6.8 per cent budgeted fiscal deficit target for the current year and most analysts also feel the same.

The RBI did not offer a number as to by how much the target will be missed. In the report on Thursday, the rating agency said higher tax and non-tax revenue collections this fiscal are expected to more than offset the likely shortfall in disinvestment revenue, leading to the fiscal deficit printing at 6.6 per cent of GDP, which is 20 bps lower than budgeted. The government finances show that tax collections so far have hugely benefitted both from growth and inflation. While GDP growth is benefitting from the low base effect, higher inflation (GDP deflator) has led to the economy logging in higher nominal growth, which in turn is helping higher tax mop-up. The GDP deflator growth in Q1FY22 was the highest at 9.7 per cent and in Q2 the same was second highest at 8.4 per cent. As a result, nominal GDP growth printed at 31.7 per cent in Q1 and 17.5 per cent in Q2, the report said. The agency estimated gross tax revenue collection to be at Rs 5.9 lakh crore this fiscal higher than the budgeted figure. Of the total tax mop, the share of corporation tax will be 28.4 per cent, income tax 16.3 per cent, GST 14.7 per cent, customs duty 14.2 per cent, excise duty at 2.4 per cent and others will be 3.9 per cent.

Accordingly, the share of direct tax in the expected additional gross tax collection will be 44.7 per cent and indirect tax will be 55.3 per cent. On the whole, the share of direct taxes in gross tax revenue is expected to rise to 48.9 per cent in FY22 from 45.8 per cent in FY21, as per the report.