Sensex next week: Israel-Iran conflict, IPO rush, FII inflows and more
Strong IPO pipeline, FII buying, and Middle East tensions to guide Sensex, Nifty this week. Watch for breakout levels, oil prices, and trade policy updates.
Despite a volatile start, Indian equity markets closed last week with solid gains, thanks to renewed FII participation and easing geopolitical tensions—at least temporarily. However, the week ahead promises a mix of optimism and caution as global developments unfold.
On Friday, June 20, the Sensex jumped 1,046 points (1.29%) to close at 82,408.17, and the Nifty 50 surged 319 points (1.29%) to settle at 25,112.40, touching fresh intraday highs. The rally was fueled by positive cues from European markets, strength in Dow futures, and short-covering ahead of monthly expiry.
“Markets reversed recent consolidation thanks to global cues and selective sectoral strength. However, traders remain watchful as West Asia tensions escalate,” said Prashanth Tapse, SVP at Mehta Equities.
The week marked the fifth straight week of consolidation with a positive close, as frontline indices moved toward their weekly highs. Gains were led by banking and IT majors, with the Bank Nifty reclaiming levels above 56,000.
Key Market Triggers This Week:
1. Israel-Iran War Escalation
The US has formally entered the conflict by launching precision strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. Iran’s vow to retaliate has raised fears of broader conflict, potentially roiling global markets and oil prices. US evacuation efforts from Israel underline the severity.
2. India-US Trade Deal Developments
India remains hopeful of finalizing a trade pact with the US before Trump’s reciprocal tariffs kick in on July 9. Progress on this deal will be closely tracked by investors amid heightened diplomatic activities.
3. IPO Calendar: 17 Issues, 8 Listings
Next week will be buzzing with 17 new IPOs (6 mainboard, 11 SME) and 8 scheduled listings, indicating strong primary market activity despite global headwinds.
4. FII Activity
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their buying spree, netting ₹7,940.70 crore on June 20 — the third-highest inflow this year. This marked the fourth straight day of inflows, reflecting a sharp reversal from April’s trend.
“FPI momentum returned in May with the strongest inflows in 8 months. June remains cautiously optimistic due to geopolitical stress,” said Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director at Waterfield Advisors.
5. Crude Oil Prices
Brent crude fell $1.84 (2.33%) to $77.01 per barrel as the US imposed fresh sanctions on Iran while hinting at a diplomatic pause. Lower oil prices could benefit Indian equities but remain volatile due to conflict risks.
Technical View:
Nifty reclaimed the 21-day EMA and closed above 25,100. According to Rupak De of LKP Securities, the index is in a short-term rally, with support at 24,850 and potential upside towards 25,350+.
Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking notes a breakout if Nifty sustains above 25,200, opening room for a move toward 25,800. Supports are at 24,700 and 24,400.
Bank Nifty View:
Private sector leaders like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank showed renewed strength. The index could climb toward 57,000–58,200, with 54,000–55,100 acting as a safety cushion on declines.
While optimism from FII flows and a strong IPO calendar is uplifting domestic sentiment, the global backdrop remains tense. With geopolitical risk from the Israel-Iran conflict, investors should watch oil prices, global cues, and trade policy signals closely.
