Geoeconomic conflict top global risk for 2026: WEF
The top five risks for India are cyber insecurity, income inequality, insufficient public services and social protections, economic downturn and state-based armed conflict
New Delhi: Geoeconomic conflict has become the topmost risk facing the world in 2026, while it is cyber insecurity for India, a new study showed on Wednesday.
Releasing its annual Global Risks Report ahead of the Davos annual meeting, the World Economic Forum said that geoeconomic confrontation has climbed eight positions to become the top-most risk globally for a two-year period, followed by misinformation and disinformation, societal polarisation, extreme weather and interstate conflict.
On a longer-term 10-year horizon, extreme weather events remain the biggest risk, followed by biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, critical change to earth systems, misinformation and disinformation and adverse outcomes of AI technologies. In the case of India, the study identified the top five risks as cyber insecurity, income inequality, insufficient public services and social protections, economic downturn and state-based armed conflict.
Highlighting critical infrastructure as a new front for warfare globally, the WEF said governments with upstream control over rivers and reservoirs could be tempted to divert water to their own populations at the expense of neighbouring countries, as water security concerns are likely to continue rising worldwide. "Potential flashpoints over the next decade could include the Indus River Basin, between India and Pakistan, or Afghanistan's construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal, which could diminish the flow of the Amu Darya River into Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan," it said.
At the same time, the WEF cited India's Unified Payments Interface as "a good example" for the governments to take measures to make their banking systems more attractive and, by extension, more resilient in the face of potential future global debt or broader financial crises. On risks emanating from misinformation and disinformation, it said a particular problem area is the proliferation of deepfakes or digitally altered videos, images, and audio recordings.
It said deepfakes have started to proliferate and have a greater influence on politics and electoral processes, and their weaponisation can undermine trust in democratic institutions, contributing to more political polarisation, and can lead to the incitement of political violence or social upheaval. "Recent elections in the United States, Ireland, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Japan, India and Argentina have all had to contend with such fabricated content on social media, depicting fictional events or discrediting political candidates, blurring the line between fact and fiction," it said.
The report is WEF's flagship publication on global risks and is now in its 21st edition.
