The government has notified binding emission-intensity targets for 282 industrial units across aluminium, cement, pulp & paper and chlor-alkali, requiring facilities to meet new reduction thresholds. From 2025–26 onwards, units that miss their targets must purchase Carbon Credit Certificates (CCCs) or pay penalties, making carbon pricing a direct line item impacting plant-level P&L.At the same time, export pressure is intensifying under Europe’s CBAM, with early evidence of a 20–25% decline in steel and aluminium exports to the EU during the transition phase ahead of full carbon-cost enforcement in 2027.

BCG notes that companies will need to prioritise three immediate actions in 2026:

• Pricing carbon in financials by mapping emission intensity and modelling CCC exposure
• Deploying Climate AI and digital MRV tools such as AI-enabled sensors and blockchain platforms to reduce compliance costs
• De-risking exports by building low-carbon production lines for EU-facing aluminium, steel and cement.

“As India’s carbon market transitions from policy intent to financial reality, 2026 is expected to become a pivotal year for industrial competitiveness. Leaders who act early won’t just stay compliant – they will capture India’s emerging green-growth advantage as carbon becomes a determinant of industrial competitiveness,” says Anirban Mukherjee, Leader, Climate & Sustainability Practice, Boston Consulting Group.

Companies that proactively adapt business models and capital allocation strategies around carbon will be best positioned to protect margins, secure export access, and build long-term resilience in a low-carbon global economy.