India’s Path to WTC Final 2024: Qualification Scenarios Explained

Australia bolstered their chances of qualifying for the 2025 World Test Championship (WTC) final with a decisive 184-run victory over India in the Melbourne Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. The win means Australia needs just one more Test victory to secure their place at Lord's, the ICC announced. India's hopes for a WTC final berth remain alive but require a series of favorable outcomes. Sri Lanka also retains an outside chance of qualification, contingent on other results aligning in their favor.

South Africa became the first team to qualify for the 2024 WTC final after a thrilling two-wicket win over Pakistan in Centurion during the Boxing Day Test. Kagiso Rabada and Marco Jansen’s late-order heroics ensured victory in a tense 148-run chase, sealing their place in next June's final.

With the series now a formality, South Africa will host Pakistan in the second Test in Cape Town starting January 3.

After losing the opening Test of the Border-Gavaskar series against India, Australia made a strong comeback, securing victories in Adelaide and Melbourne. Their dominant performance leaves them needing only one win from three remaining Tests to confirm their top-two finish in the WTC points table.

India began their 2024/25 WTC campaign with a 2-0 home victory over Bangladesh. However, setbacks followed with a historic home loss to New Zealand and a challenging tour of Australia. Stand-in skipper Jasprit Bumrah led India to an opening Test win in Perth, keeping hopes alive for a third consecutive WTC final appearance. However, subsequent losses in the series have placed India in a precarious position.

For India to qualify, they must win the final Test against Australia and rely on Sri Lanka preventing Australia from securing a series victory in their upcoming matches. Sri Lanka's hopes hinge on a strong performance when they host Australia next year, alongside favorable outcomes in other series. New Zealand, after a dominant series win in India, faltered with losses to England. Penalties for a slow over-rate further dented their chances, leaving them at fifth in the standings. Despite a 423-run victory in their final Test, the Black Caps remain outside the top spots needed for WTC final qualification.

The WTC 2024 standings have Australia and South Africa in prime positions, with India, Sri Lanka, and New Zealand trailing with slim chances. The upcoming fixtures in January, including Australia’s tour of Sri Lanka and India's final Test in Australia, will be critical in determining the final two teams for the championship showdown.