On Lok Sabha result eve, Maha politicians hide butterflies in stomach with bravado

Mumbai: Barely hours before the EVMs end the suspense surrounding the just-concluded 2024 Lok Sabha elections, political parties, their leaders and candidates are putting on a brave face and hiding their nervousness over the expected/unexpected verdict of the ‘Gods of Democracy’, the people.

Most political parties and the candidates are suppressing their nerves as they count the hours – and probably spend a sleepless night - before their fate is ‘un-boxed’ from 8 A.M. on June 4 for the 48 LS constituencies in Maharashtra.

The Maharashtra results on Tuesday could impact any proposed government formation at the Centre, with the MPs from here playing a critical role in either alliance that may be invited by the President.

Top leaders of both sides - ruling Mahayuti and Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) - are confidently crowing that they would trump in the state, with the outcome having significant consequences on the upcoming Assembly elections due in October.

More so, as the last five years have witnessed a drastically changed state political horizon after the toppling of the MVA government headed by ex-CM Uddhav Thackeray.

The MVA’s exit was followed by vertical splits in two major parties, the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in June 2022 and July 2023, respectively, souring the state’s political broth.

These unprecedented developments came with name changes, new leaders, unfamiliar symbols, not to mention an unknown fate, as the new outfits -- Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena (UBT) and the

NCP and NCP(SP) -- frantically vie for ‘political legitimacy’ in the public eyes.

Tomorrow’s LS verdict would signal altered political permutations and combinations with the BJP and its rival SS(UBT) hoping to emerge as the single-largest party in the state that sends the second-biggest contingent to Parliament (48) after Uttar Pradesh’s 80.

For the Congress, which suffered near-annihilation in its traditional bastion in the last 10 years, the challenge would be rising from the ashes. In 2019, the party got just one MP, compared with two in 2014, a far cry from the 17 it held in the 2009 LS elections.

As far as the Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and NCP headed by Deputy CM Ajit Pawar are concerned, the test would be getting the nod of the masses for their splinter groups, and securing a stamp of approval on contentions that the rival factions are 'fake or illegitimate'.

This is no mean task, considering the parties from which they broke out are SS(UBT) headed by Uddhav Thackeray, son of Sena founder, the late Balasaheb Thackeray while the NCP(SP) is led by its founder Sharad Pawar, both revered among the people.

Not surprisingly, the three partners on each side – Mahayuti and MVA - made an all-out, desperate attempt to woo the voters – to win the biggest chunk of seats for their respective candidates and sides to prove their supremacy vis-a-vis each other.

The heavily-pruned SS(UBT) and NCP(SP) secured solid support from the Congress – which was also hobbling politically, to present a united face in the LS elections.

There was no major political bloodshed as the Congress adopted an elder brotherly, give-and-take attitude towards the other allies, particularly, the SS(UBT), besides the NCP(SP), though the Sangli outcome may lead to a spat tomorrow if a Congress rebel-turned-Independent triumphs, as indicated in most Exit Polls.

The state’s verdict on June 4 could have a bearing on the political future of many bigwigs like BJP’s Nitin Gadkari, Piyush Goyal, Narayan Rane, Raosaheb Danve, Pankaja Munde, Sudhir Mungantiwar; NCP’s Sunetra Ajit Pawar; and Shiv Sena’s Dr. Shrikant Eknath Shinde, among others.

The same would be in store for prominent ones from the Opposition, like the Congress’ Prof. Varsha Gaikwad, Praniti Shinde, Ravindra Dhangekar; NCP(SP)’s Working President Supriya Sule, Dr. Amol Kolhe; SS(UBT)’s Arvind Sawant, Chandrakant Khaire, Amol G Kirtikar, and others.

In 2024, the Mahayuti allies contested all 48 seats – Shiv Sena (15), BJP (28), NCP (4), plus one to Rashtriya Samaj Party and the MVA allies fought – SS(UBT) 21, Congress 17 and NCP (SP) 10.