Monsoon likely to be normal for 3rd consecutive year

New Delhi: Monsoon is likely to be normal or above normal for the third consecutive year, Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting agency, said on Tuesday.

In its preliminary forecast for 2021, Skymet said the rainfall from June to September is likely to 103% of the long period average (LPA) of 88cm based on average monsoon rain from 1961 to 2010. In 2020 and 2019, the monsoon was above normal at 110% and 109% of LPA, respectively.

The monsoon season, which begins on June 1, is crucial for summer crops and brings about 70% of India's annual rainfall. It is crucial to the country's agriculture, which is one of the mainstays of its economy. Monsoon spurs farm produce and improves rural spending.

Monsoon rains are a lifeline for about 60% of the country's net cultivated area, which has no irrigation.

The monsoon impacts inflation, jobs, and industrial demand. Good farm output keeps a lid on food inflation. Ample harvests raise rural incomes and helps inject demand into the economy.

In its forecast, Skymet said the northern plains, along with few parts of the northeast region, are likely to be at risk of being rain deficient through the season. Also, interior parts of Karnataka could face scanty rains in the core monsoon months of July and August.

Skymet CEO Yogesh Patil said La Nina conditions have been prevailing in the Pacific Ocean since last year.

"It is, however, expected to remain neutral through the monsoon season. Occurrence of El Nino, which normally corrupts the monsoon, is ruled out," he added.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and oscillating lightly on either side of the Zero Line.

It is unlikely to harm the monsoon season. IOD is characterised by warmer sea surface temperature in the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Positive IOD conditions are usually associated with normal or above normal monsoon.