Climate Centre and IMA predict good Monsoon from June

Hyderabad: There is some cheer for the country which is reeling under heat wave conditions. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APCC) Climate Center in its first monsoon forecast for India this year for the periods of April to June and July to September said India will receive above average rainfall (good monsoon) this year.

According to the report there is there is change earlier prediction on low rainfall. The reason for this latest prediction is due to ENSO alert that anticipates a smooth shift from El Nino to La Nina condition.

The APCC introduced an ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) alert system update on March 15, 2024. The ENSO status predicts a La Nina WATCH for the period of April to September 2024.

The APCC Climate Center, in its report said. "Enhanced probability for above-normal precipitation is predicted for the region spanning eastern Africa to the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal, and Indonesia, the Caribbean Sea, the tropical North Atlantic, southern Australia, and the southern South Pacific. A tendency for above-normal precipitation is expected for some regions of East Asia and northern Australia."

Earlier, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had said that India is likely to embrace abundant rainfall during monsoon this year, under the reduced influence of El Nino and significant La-Nina conditions in the Pacific region after May.

El-Nino redults in warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean and has direct impact on the weather patterns prevalent over the Indian peninsula.

La Nina refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.

The June-September monsoon, which is vital for India brings nearly 70% of the rain the country needs to water crops and replenish reservoirs and recharge groundwater.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that persistent El Nino conditions are likely to bring intense heat during the summer season this year. However, the prevailing El Nino conditions will likely get neutral after the summer season.

Before a good monsoon, India will see a scorching summer season due to prevalent El Nino conditions. More heatwave days than normal are predicted over northeast peninsular India -- Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and north interior Karnataka -- and many parts of Maharashtra and Odisha.