Nostradamus of US polls favours Kamala Harris over Trump
Allan Lichtman, known as the Nostradamus of US presidential elections
New York: Renowned American election forecaster Allan Lichtman, known as the Nostradamus of US presidential elections, has made a preliminary prediction for the 2024 presidential election, which will be held on November 5. Lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine of the past 10 elections since 1984, currently favours Vice President Kamala Harris over the Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, according to his "Keys to the White House" formula. However, a final prediction for the race is yet to be made.
Nostradamus was a famous 16th-century French astrologer who is said to have predicted many important world events that happened long after his death. Lichtman, on the other hand, has been predicting US elections for the past 40 years. The US presidential election occurs every four years.
As a history professor at American University for 50 years, Lichtman developed the renowned "13 keys to the White House" method that establishes a strong indication of who will win the election.
This method consists of 13 true/false questions, and if six or more keys go against the incumbent party, Lichtman predicts their defeat. If fewer than six went against it, it would win. At the beginning of the presidential election cycle, Democrats were handed one automatic "key" for President Biden's incumbency. However, the ballot has since seen a dramatic shift. After President Joe Biden's poor performance in the first presidential debate held on June 27 in Atlanta, Georgia, he quit the presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris for the presidency. Kamala Harris is an Indian-American politician.
Democrats, with Harris as the likely Democratic presidential nominee, currently hold six of the 13 keys, including primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma, reported the New York Post. Republicans hold three keys -- winning the House majority in the 2022 midterms, the current incumbent not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma. If Democrats lose three more keys, they would be the projected "losers" according to Lichtman's formula.
Despite this, Lichtman believes "a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose", according to the New York Post.
Nostradamus of US presidential elections will make his final prediction for this cycle after Democrats choose their nominee at the Democratic National Convention (DNC).
The DNC is scheduled for August 19. Lichtman has a strong track record, correctly predicting Trump's win in 2016 and Biden's win in 2020. His formula has been used to predict the outcome of presidential contests with a high success rate since its development in 1981.