Get the transition right

Let’s not be in any doubt that our world has not changed. This is the age of Donald Trump in the times of climate risk. There is already pushback against action to mitigate climate change, which will grow even as the impacts of a warmer world intensify, the rich suffer devastating losses, the insured are not able to cover these catastrophes as costs rise and insurance companies withdraw. I write this not to state the obvious; but to reaffirm the need to focus on actions that will reduce climate risks while im-proving livelihoods and economies in our world. The challenge is to achieve the co-benefits of inclusive development with sustainability, while staying on the decarbonisation pathways that work for us, the countries of the South.

Take the issue of clean energy transition. India’s imperative is to provide electricity to millions for liveli-hood security. Even today, large numbers of households in the country are burdened by excruciating energy poverty; electricity supply is either unreliable, unavailable or is expensive. People do not have the luxury of switching on lights and women still cook with dirty biomass. Industry is similarly hit, and this is when the cost of energy determines competitiveness. This is also why Indian industry prefers its own electricity generation systems— captive power—using fuels like coal. So, we need strategies for more energy, clean energy and affordable energy. If we get this transition right, we can move towards low-carbon growth, which will work for us and reduce the emissions that are leading the world to-wards catastrophe.

This is why the Union government’s 500 GW of clean energy plan by 2030 is laudable. It has deliberate-ly planned not to replace coal—which today provides 75 per cent of India’s total electricity genera-tion—but to displace coal. Its plan to do this is by increasing the capacity of clean energy sources, in-cluding solar and wind, which can generate 44 per cent of the electricity demand by 2030.

This would require a more than doubling of clean energy even as India doubles its electricity consumption in this period. The government has been clear on its commitment to move the needle on clean energy transi-tion.

However, we need to be clear that this is still a work in progress—we need a careful review of what works and what does not. I am saying this, mindful of the fact that it is easy to be a cheerleader, to continue to espouse on the fact that India has increased its installed capacity of renewables—both old (hydroelectricity) and new (solar and wind). And this is indeed a fact; India today has some 200 GW of installed clean energy capacity, which is 45 per cent of the power generation capacity in the country by March 2024. But it is not enough. This non-fossil power capacity generated less than a quarter of the electricity in this period. If you consider only new renewables—solar and wind—which have seen im-pressive year-on-year growth in terms of investment and installation, then it is a meagre 13 per cent. This is just not adding up to the energy transition that is so desperately needed. To displace coal, as per the government’s own proposal, these two sources of clean energy need to generate some 30 per cent of the required electricity by 2030.

Is there a mismatch between the installed and generation capacity of solar and wind? If so, why? The question requires tracking the capacity utilisation factor of the commissioned plants.

But this data is available only for the plants owned by central public sector units, not for private wind and solar plants. In fact, there is no public database of the units commissioned in the country, generation of electricity or where it is being sold or supplied. Ironically, this is available for thermal power plants, but not for new energy.

There is a pact of silence, it seems, in this private industryinvestor driven business. The Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) website shows that by June 2024, a large portfolio of projects had not been commissioned way past the date of the effective power purchase agreement (PPA). It is important to note that as per the current system, projects are awarded tenders only after the PPA has been signed—meaning, the purchase of the generated power at a pre-determined rate has been agreed upon. This also is done after the project proponent has cleared that it has investment and other facili-ties, including land, for the project. As per SECI, these add up to 34.5 GW of solar, wind and hybrid pro-jects.

Then projects adding up to another 10 GW are still awaiting PPAs—these are stranded because state power purchase agencies are reluctant to sign against the price that is offered.

This is all happening at the time when the cost of delivered power from a new coal project is higher than that from a solar project. One reason that is bandied about is that solar and wind are intermittent sources of energy—they are available when the sun shines and the wind blows. The answer then is to build what is com-monly known as round-the-clock projects—where either battery storage or a combination of higher capacity provides assured power. But these projects are also seemingly “stuck” and not commissioned as per SECI.

We need to fix these shortcomings to ensure that India achieves its goal of 500 GW clean power. This is critical and essential.

(Courtesy: https://www.downtoearth.org.in/; Writer is Director General of CSE and editor of Down To Earth, an environmentalist who pushes for changes in policies, practices and mindsets)