Trump 2.0 Has Already The World On The Edge

“Trump being Trump”, even before the second ascent of Donald Trump to the US Presidency on January 20, he has set the cat among the pigeons in domestic, regional and international affairs. It is not just the Americans who have to brace for a churn of things triggered by his disconcerting habit of causing disquiet. It is not just ‘America First’ but his stance on ‘Make America Greater’ in size and importance that is causing concern and consternation in Americas and Europe, more so among the members of NATO.

Trump’s equation with leaders across the world will be particularly in focus. He just paved way for the exit of a beleaguered Justin Trudeau, who had wanted to show he could deal with Trump better than any other Canadian. Saying he opposes any easy aid to Canada, he put off America’s closest neighbour that it had better become the 51st state of the US. He even taunted Trudeau as Governor of Canada.

Not just the UN, as regards its certain actions and climate initiatives, he is even hinting at change in the US policy toward NATO, demanding that the members raise their defence budgets, and pay up for the security provided by the US. His praise for Putin is well known, and he even vowed to “end the Ukraine war in a day” after he comes to power. European nations are now scrambling to extend as much aid as possible to Ukraine before Trump assumes charge. His praise of Putin as ‘savvy’ and ‘genius’ when Russia invaded Ukraine still rankles America’s NATO allies.

But, in respect of Xi Jinping, Trump’s admiration may not extend to policy change. Rather, he would double down on his threat of taxing Chinese imports. While Trump’s ties with Israel and Saudi Arabia leaders are cordial, it is North Korea which would niggle him most, even directly issuing nuclear threats. For Iran’s Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Trump has wryly wished ‘luck’; understandably, Iran is commencing military drills to brace for uncertain times.

Finally, how is Trump likely to be disposed towards the world’s most populous nation and the largest democracy? His earlier praise for Modi as the ‘nicest human being’ came with a rider that the Indian PM can also be a ‘total killer’. It is certain that Trump’s ‘America First’ policy would seek to tighten H-1B rules, raising costs for Indian IT firms as well. Nearly 80% of IT exports revenues accrues from the US to India. The US was India’s top trading partner in 2021–2022 and 2022–2023. But, China displaced it in 2023-24. After being dubbed as a ‘large tariff abuser and tariff king’ by him, India should face more tariff on its exports viz., automobiles, wines, textiles, and pharmaceuticals. It can hope, though, to gain from America’s any tough actions toward China.

Largely, Trump’s second era could be marked by trade wars, inflationary trends, and slower growth in global economy. His proposed 60% more import tariff on Chinese products and an extra 10% tariff may trigger retaliatory measures, adding to inflationary risks in many countries. Adverse actions on trade as well as geopolitical entanglements would pit the world against the gloom of the 1930, fear pundits.

While Trump’s words cause fear he may run amok on world stage, he has also raised hopes of ending wars in West Asia and Eastern Europe. Even so, his latest territorial claims to Canada, Greenland and Panama Canal, the first in over 7 decades by any American leader, smack of the imperialistic tendencies of the past. The sooner he realises world peace and prosperity is imperative for his country’s abundance the better it is for all.