Israel-Iran conflict may not continue for long

The long-standing tensions between Israel and Iran have entered a perilous new phase, marked by direct military engagement and significant strategic consequences. The latest escalation occurred when Israel launched a direct airstrike on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure. On Saturday, an Israeli missile struck Phase 14 of the South Pars gas field—the world’s largest—causing a massive fire and forcing Iran to suspend the production of 12 million cubic metres of gas per day. This marked the first known direct Israeli strike on Iran’s vital energy sector and signifies a new level of confrontation. The strike, reportedly executed with surgical precision, has dealt a blow to Iran’s energy revenues, further pressuring an already strained economy under years of international sanctions. By targeting South Pars, Israel has moved beyond military installations and proxy militias, striking directly at Iran’s economic lifelines. Not ironically, the conflict has also taken on an ideological and historical dimension. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu invoked the trauma of the Holocaust to justify Israel’s aggressive posture.

In a sombre address to the nation, he declared, “Nearly a century ago, facing the Nazis, a generation of leaders failed to act in time.” Drawing parallels with Adolf Hitler’s rise and the devastating appeasement that followed, he insisted that Israel would not allow history to repeat itself. “The Jewish people and the Jewish state have vowed never again,” he said. Over the past year, Israel has systematically degraded Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities. A series of covert operations and precision strikes have killed several top Iranian commanders and nuclear scientists, many of whom played central roles in Tehran’s nuclear programme and strategic planning. These strikes not only weakened Iran’s deterrent capabilities but also sent a clear message to both Iran and the international community: Israel is willing to act unilaterally and decisively when it perceives an existential threat. In fact the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas, an Iran proxy, had triggered the ongoing war in the Middle East. Netanyahu has rightly avowed to confront Iran whose stated goal is annihilation of the Jewish state.

The United States, while officially refraining from direct military involvement in the hostilities, has expressed unwavering support for Israel. Washington has reiterated Israel’s right to self-defence, and intelligence cooperation between the two allies remains robust. The international fallout from the conflict is already being felt. In India, concerns over regional stability have led to the rerouting of internationalflights to avoid Iranian and Israeli airspace, resulting in delays and logistical challenges. Financial markets are jittery, with the Bombay Stock Exchange tumbling on Friday amid fears of supply disruptions and broader geopolitical uncertainty. Energy prices have also surged globally, reflecting the vulnerability of oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East. Despite the alarming developments, the conflict may not extend for a prolonged period. Israel’s objectives are specific and time-bound: to severely degrade Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure and, in the longer term, to encourage or precipitate regime change in Tehran. While the latter is an ambitious goal in the short term, the former is achievable and already in motion. If Israel succeeds in incapacitating Iran’s military capabilities—particularly its missile systems, command infrastructure, and nuclear development facilities—it may restore a balance of power in the region. Facts indicate that Israel can succeed.