India should take advantage of the ongoing changes in Venezuela

The Narendra Modi government has done well by keeping away from the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from his home in Caracas. India’s reaction, which came more than 24 hours after the audacious US operation, was characterised by caution: “Recent developments in Venezuela are a matter of deep concern. We are closely monitoring the evolving situation. India reaffirms its support to the well-being and safety of the people of Venezuela,” an External Affairs Ministry statement said. This was diplomatese at its best: expressing good intentions without committing anything.

It went on to add: “We call upon all concerned to address issues peacefully through dialogue, ensuring peace and stability of the region. The embassy of India in Caracas is in contact with members of the Indian community and will continue to provide all possible assistance.” In other words, we mind our own business; our concern is our citizens; let Venezuela’s fate be decided by ‘all concerned’. In fact, our stock markets were also wise enough to get bothered about something that happened on the side of the globe.

On the first trading day after the US operation (January 5), the Indian stock market closed a bit lower, but there was no meltdown; in fact, there was little impact of the events in the Latin American country. Asian indices, Japan’s Nikkei and Korea’s Kospi, rose over three per cent. Other major global indices also reacted positively. This is not surprising considering that the US President Donald Trump wants to help rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry with the help of oil companies from his own country. The share prices of these corporations soared—Chevron 5.1 per cent, Exxon Mobil 2.2 per cent, and Halliburton surged 7.8 per cent. India’s response, and global capital markets’ exuberance, is rational, because if Trump’s plan succeeds it will hugely increase the supply of crude in the international market. This will bring down oil prices, thus reducing our import bill. It may be recalled that India meets about 88 per cent of its crude oil and 51 per cent of its gas requirements through imports. On the whole, Venezuela’s takeover will most probably be good for India.

The government should also exercise caution in its response to the criticism hurled at it by the Opposition. While Congress did not directly slam the government’s response, while highlighting the important settled principles of international law, it obliquely berated the government. “The INC expresses very grave concern on US actions relating to Venezuela in the past 24 hours. Settled principles of international law cannot be violated unilaterally,” Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said in his X post. This reaction should be seen in the context of its Left-leaning stance over the decades, a stance that did a lot of damage to India, but that’s another story. Then there is the fascinating irony of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) finding its mention in newspapers, courtesy the US action. John Brittas blasted the Modi government for its “passive and disappointing response” to America’s “blatant aggression.” Pinkish public intellectuals are also a legion, and there is no dearth of anti-US saffron ideologues. They can play up Trump’s recent threat to further hike tariffs on India. The government must ignore all this and focus on getting a better deal from the changes in Venezuela.