India can’t afford to lose Maldives to China

After seeing both ‘hits’ and ‘misses’ in the year just gone by, New Delhi is fraught with a new concern in the form of Maldives’ new President warming up to China; after, it got a breather with Colombo dealing a shocker to China, respecting the strategic concerns of India in the Indian Ocean. Following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s outreach to President Ranil Wickremesinghe in July last year, Sri Lanka, despite being heavily indebted to China, started denying permission to Chinese research ships which India suspects to be keeping tabs on its naval movements in the Ocean and also track its defence positions. With over 7,500-km coastline, India receives 95 per cent of trade by volume and 68 per cent of trade by value come via the Indian Ocean. It’s natural that it wants its neighbours not to help its enemies.

Be that as it may. Maldives abuts key shipping lines to China, Japan and India, and has a critical role in ensuring political stability and security in the region. A member of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), it is actively involved in regional security initiatives. India has historic relations with the country. It is the 5th largest source of tourist arrivals and Indians are the largest expatriate community in the Maldives. Both countries have institutional linkages in several fields and India has always been ready to do the needful. Not just that, it relies on India to provide maritime security and aid its counter terrorism moves. As such, it is a grave concern that Maldives’ new President Mohamed Muizzu has ordered Indian troops out of the country and is visiting Beijing to boost bilateral ties. In doing so, he is putting paid to a custom, since 2008, for Maldivian Presidents to pay first overseas visit to India. Also, he has just decided not to renew a hydrographic survey pact with India. His Vice-President even attended a meet on Indian Ocean in Beijing and but skirted an India-induced meet on the Ocean in Mauritius. It may be recalled that Muizzu came to power in November last, riding on the back of an ‘India Out’ campaign, defeating Ibrahim Solih, a close friend of India. He was put up by former President Abdullah Yameen who was jailed for corruption charges. Yameen was defeated by Solih in 2018. Besides political reasons, growing religious intolerance in Maldives may also be harming India’s interests.

Beijing’s closeness to Male will imperil India’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean. A big question is if Male will continue to treat India as first among equals in its relations with neighbouring countries. India needs Maldives to curb seaborne terrorism and keep off any big power games in the strategic waters. At a time when it has emerged the fastest-growing nation and is carving a niche in global politics with a daringly independent stance, India cannot afford to have tensions in its backyard.

If China gains any footprint in the Indian Ocean archipelago – a chain of 1,192 islands – it is sure to unsettle India. As such, India needs to figure out what is on the mind of Male which, earlier, welcomed the Quad, a strategic group of India, Japan, Australia, and the United States, saying it would bring stability to the Indian Ocean and the Pacific region. Muizzu’s anti-India stances has serious implications for the Asia-Pacific maritime security. India and other Quad members should impress upon Male to see the reason and desist from stoking geopolitical tensions in the region.