All eyes on Tamil Nadu as polls draw near

Surveys have started making their entry into the political scenario at Chennai, ahead of the impending announcement of Legislative Assembly election dates. Parawheel, which calls itself India’s first ground-up public intelligence platform, has come up with predictions that indicate that actor Vijay helmed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is poised to emerge as the deciding party with 13.6 per cent vote share even as the two major Dravidian parties DMK and AIADMK and their allies are set to retain a sizeable share of their loyal followers, with the former’s alliance expected to return to power as per current trends.

While the present ruling party DMK and its 21-member alliance is expected to bag 41.5 per cent vote share, the AIADMK, which has the BJP as its ally, is estimated to get 36.2 per cent. This after the political atmosphere was peaking with DMK initially refusing to play ball with the Congress and its flip-flop attitude, before settling the alliance anxieties by conceding more than what it did in the 2021 election.

Reports had mentioned how DMK has given 28 Assembly seats to Congress, three more than what it had over five years ago apart from a Rajya Sabha seat nomination. In a long time, the Congress had not bargained so hard and consistently for two of its key demands – more seats for the ensuing polls and the other contentious one – power-sharing if the alliance triumphs at the hustings. Their flirting with the TVK was enough to cause heartburn among DMK veterans, who were aghast at how the Congress chief was firing on all cylinders and not making any attempts to couch it in political doublespeak, even once.

While the margin between the two leading alliances does not give much comfort to the ruling party, its leaders like Chief Minister M K Stalin and his team, are hopeful of the tide shifting in their favour once the dates are announced. Yet the first-timer Vijay whose popularity has never been in question as a film star and managing to corner a likely double-digit voting percentage can cause concern owing to the damage it can inflict when the contests are close and fierce in key constituencies, which is likely.

With the BJP focusing heavily on the Dravidian state politics and the high-power campaign from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the other leading party leaders once again exhibiting the party’s desperation to have a slice of the power pie, 2026 is likely to see the Dravidian model governance severely tested against the incessant tirade of corruption, violence and terrible law and order situation in the State launched by the Opposition parties.

The southern part of the country is still an enigma wrapped in a mystery for the saffron outfits, and they would want it to be decoded at least partially this time even as neighbouring Kerala poses a new set of challenges for the NDA alliance.