All eyes on Modi’s first foreign visit in third term

Post his historic hat-trick feat as the PM and the monsoon session of parliament, Narendra Modi is set to fly abroad to pursue the global interests of India. He will be in Moscow on July 8-9 for the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit. A communique said both Putin and Modi will review the entire range of multifaceted relations between the two countries and take stock of contemporary regional and global issues of mutual interest.

It will be Modi’s first trip to Russia since Moscow launched its military offensive in Ukraine. Russia and India have had close ties since the days of Cold War and India’s importance grew multifold as a key economic and trade partner since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Why Modi chose Russia for his first tour abroad piques analysts’ minds.

He could not be available for the just concluded 2024 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Kazakhstan, which Putin and Xi attended. In the past, he had chosen neighbours for first foreign visit as part of the neighbourhood first policy.

India largely depends on Russia for its military needs and now handsomely benefits from its cheap oil. It is in its self-interest that India avoids any overt criticism of Russia or backs any vote against Moscow at UN or other meetings. Nevertheless, India has not been known to be meek or mince its words as Modi did when he told Putin during a telephone call in March 2024 that this was not an era of war, and stressed a peaceful settlement through dialogue. He even spoke to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine and called for an early end to the ongoing conflict. India also provides humanitarian aid to the war-torn country despite close ties with Russia. The West is aware of India’s proclivity for independent stance in adherence to its time-test principles.

Even as India is deepening its defence ties with the West, it resists pleas to call out Russia for invading Ukraine. It is maintaining a fine, delicate balance between the West and Russia, ensuring its ties flourish with both sides. In the event of a Trump-led America denying support to Ukraine, the West will look to India to use its good offices with Russia.

It is only a strong and bold India with greater sway on the comity of nations that can earn respect from the Chinese who do not seem to bother much about peace and relinquishing its occupations. Consultations and coordination meetings took place as many as 21 times since June 2020 aggression by China, but in vain. Hence, India needs to know for sure that Russia doesn’t lean too much on China and backs it in case of any future conflict with India. Modi may test Russia’s keenness to believe in India’s version. President Xi Jinping’s recent praise for ‘Panchsheel’ agreement between India and China, otherwise known as the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, does not cut ice, for it was China that transgressed borders and waged a war with India in 1962. China’s actions thus far contradict its assertions.

The summit is taking on the heels of a Putin-Xi meeting which re-affirmed that their ties were the strongest and with no limits. India needs to make it clear that Russia’s growing bond with China should not come at its expense. It fears Russia may deny it tech or go slow on

military spares supplies. Will Russia continue to be India’s credible friend? Russia seems to be aware of India’s concerns. Ahead of Modi’s Moscow visit, it has announced the production in India of armour-piercing rounds for Russian-made battle tanks.