With last phase of voting left, market volatility would increase

New Delhi: Markets were on a roll, and they had plenty of action and drama as well in the week gone by. The previously announced holiday on Thursday, on account of Buddha Purnima, was cancelled by the exchanges on Monday, considering the fact that two holidays in a week would break the momentum.

As events turned out, Thursday was the key pivot for the markets as they gained a massive 1,197 points on BSE SENSEX and 370 points on NIFTY on Thursday. In the process, they made new lifetime highs as well. The RBI declaring a dividend of Rs 2.1 lakh crore for the financial year ended March 2024 was a great help as well, as it ensured that the fiscal deficit the government is targeting is well under control.

At the end of the four-day week, BSE SENSEX gained two and lost two sessions, while NIFTY gained three and lost one. BSE SENSEX gained 1,404.45 points or 1.90 per cent to close at 75,410.39 points, while NIFTY gained 455.10 points or 2.02 per cent to close at 22,957.10 points.

The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.87 per cent, 1.87 per cent and 1.65 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 1.10 per cent, while BSESMALLCAP was up 0.08 per cent. The new intraday highs made on Friday were 75,499.91 points and 23,026.40 points.

The Indian Rupee had a strong showing during the week and gained 24 paise or 0.29 per cent to close at Rs 83.10 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones saw selling pressure and lost in three of the five trading sessions. It was down 934 points or 2.33 per cent to close at 39,069.59 points.

The week gone by saw one new mainboard listing-shares of Go Digit General Insurance Limited, which were issued at Rs 272 listed on Thursday, May 23. The opening price was Rs 281.10 on BSE. Shares closed day one at Rs 305.75, a gain of Rs 33.75 or 12.40 per cent. On Friday, the share lost some ground and closed at Rs 300.15, a reduced gain since the listing of Rs 28.15 or 10.35 per cent.

The issue from Awfis Space Solutions Limited is currently on. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rs 128 crore and an offer for sale of 1,22,95,699 equity shares in a price band of Rs 364-383. The company, as the name suggests, is in the business of providing common workspaces on a daily or longer-term contracted basis.

Currently, the company is on a net loss, based on its restated accounts, which are showing a declining trend. Looking at the leverage opportunity that the company has and the fact that 75 per cent of the space is rented out, it could be expected that the company should report positive numbers for the year ended March 25.

The issue opened on Wednesday, May 22, and would close on Monday, May 27. At the end of the second day of the issue opening, it received decent support, with the issue being subscribed an overall 11.4 times.

The QIB portion was subscribed 3.39 times, the HNI portion 20.98 times and the Retail portion 21.08 times. Investors looking for listing pop and having a medium-term holding period would be rewarded if their application for the share is successful.

The week ahead sees May futures expire on Thursday, May 30. The current value of NIFTY at 22,957.10 points is higher by 386.75 points or 1.71 per cent compared to the May series opening of 22,570.35 points. It would be interesting to note that all the gains have been made in the previous week, as prior to this, the series was negative. While currently the momentum is with the bulls, one needs to be cautious as to the way markets may move on election results eve.

The sixth phase of voting has concluded, and now just the seventh and final phase of voting on Saturday, June 1, remains. With the sharp rally over the last two weeks since markets made a bottom on Monday, May 13, they have rallied quite sharply. They have also made new lifetime highs. Very clearly, the markets are convinced that the ruling BJP-led NDA would form the next government. Exit poll assessment would begin Saturday evening and carry on till results are announced on Tuesday morning.

With expiry happening during the coming week, volatility on expiry day could get substantially elevated as people decide to lighten positions and adopt a wait-and-watch attitude. FPIs have been big sellers in the month of May and, barring a couple of days, sold every day. This excess of liquidity, while it was absorbed by domestic institutions, could see a mismatch on expiry day.

Coming to the week ahead, expect sharp volatility as expiry day approaches. The election results getting closer could cause volatility to rise post-futures expiry as positions would, in all probability, get liquidated to a large extent. With limited positions open in the market from Monday to Wednesday in the week, June 3 to June 6 could see really sharp volatility. The strategy for the week ahead would be to reduce positions as the week progresses.

Refrain from any overweight positions in either direction, as sharp volatility is expected. Analyse exit polls for all they are worth, look at the results and then take a call.

Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)