Slowdown forecast on GDP growth

Chennai: India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should grow in the region of 6.7-6.9 per cent during the third quarter (Q3) of FY24, said a top economist with the State Bank of India (SBI).In his latest report Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor said, “factoring the slight decline in economic activity in Q3 FY24, we estimate that the GDP should grow in the range of 6.7-6.9 per cent with a gross value added (GVA) growth of 6.6 per cent.” The SBI Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Index (a basket of 41 leading indicators which includes parameters from almost all the sectors) based on monthly data shows a slight moderation in economic activity in Q3.According to Ghosh, the estimates are corroborated with the in-house developed SBI-ANN (Artificial Neural Network) model, with 30 high-frequency indicators.

The ANN has been trained for the quarterly GDP data from 2011Q4 to 2020Q4 and the in-sample forecast performance of the model in the training period has been precise.As a counter narrative to the global gloom, consumer confidence has strengthened further in India, driven chiefly by optimism about the general economic situation and employment conditions. Various enterprise surveys also point towards strong business optimism, Ghosh said.Corporate India has continued its robust performance buoyed by incrementally accelerating consumption patterns across the urban-rural landscape.Corporate results, as recorded from around 4,000 listed entities, for Q3FY24, shows robust growth of more than 30 per cent in both EBIDTA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) and profit after tax (PAT), while top line grew by around 7 per cent as compared to Q3FY23, the report said.