Markets eye central banks’ decisions for next triggers

Stock Market, Nifty, FIIs, Gold Investment, Bank Nifty, Derivatives Market

BSE Sensex index fell 503.67 points or 0.67 percent to close at 73,828.91 points, and Nifty declined 155.3 points or 0.68 per cent to close at 22,397.20. On the back of jitters over forthcoming Q4 results, the broader market underperformed benchmark indices. The BSE Small-cap index fell nearly 4 per cent and the BSE Mid-cap Index shed two per cent.

During the week ended FIIs sold equities worth Rs5,729.68 crore, while DIIs bought equities worth Rs5,499.47 crore. Selling of Indian equities by the FIIs continued in the firstfortnight of March where they sold shares worth Rs30,015 crore. For theyear so far, FIIs have been net sellers of shares worth Rs1.64 lakh crore, while DIIs have net bought Rs1.77 lakh crore worth of shares. It is pertinentto observe that the intensity of selling by FIIs is slowly declining asvaluations are becoming reasonable. The FII outflows from India have beenmainly going into Chinese stocks which have been outperforming other markets in 2025. During the week, the Indian rupee ended lower by 12 paiseat 87 per dollar on March 13 against the March 7 closing of 86.88.

In nearterm, the market is expected to be rangebound and look for cues from the central banks’ meetings (including the US Federal Reserve), further developments related to the global trade war, and China’s retail sales and industrial production data for the last 2 months. The US Fed is unlikely toalter the policy rates, but Street will be keeping an eye on his commentary oninflation and economy. US market observers say stock prices aren’t driven exclusively by Presidential policy. Inflation, interest rates, commodity prices,the value of the dollar, wars, natural disasters and changes in other nations’ policies. are among the countless factors that can knock stock prices up ordown. US Presidents had some control over some of those forces, but total control over none. Political filters can have quirky consequences.

GOLD Chatter: Investors who bought Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB) 2016-17 Series IV have hit a jackpot. A gram of gold bought at Rs2,943 during the issue period at March 2017 is worth Rs8,624 per gram now, which translates into 3x gains or a whopping 193 per cent profit over the issue price. The final redemption date of the above tranche is Monday March 17, 2025. SGBs are government securities denominated in grams of gold. The bonds are redeemed in cash on maturity. Gold has been on fire as it hit a fresh lifetime high of Rs90,000 per 10 grams on Friday. In the international market, gold breached the $3,000 per troy ounce mark. So far this year, gold appreciated by over 14 per cent or nearly Rs11,000 on the MCX.

If you’re a millionaire by the time you’re 30 but blow it all by age 40, you’vegained nothing. Grow and protect your investment portfolio bycarefully diversifying it, and you may find yourself funding many generationsto come.

F&O / SECTOR WATCH

Showing some signs of resilience on the back of slowdown in FII selling, the derivatives segment witnessed good volumes during the week ended. Nifty traded in a narrow range, ending with a modest loss of over 0.5 per cent, while Bank Nifty impacted by InduSind Bank episode dropped nearly one per cent. In theoptions market, prominent Call Open Interest for Nifty was seen at the 23,000 and 22,700 strikes, while the notable Put OI was at the 22,000 strike. For Bank Nifty, the prominent Call Open Interest was seen at the 49,000 strike, whereas notable Put Open Interest at the 48,000 strike.

Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty’s Call options settled at 13.09 per cent, while Put options conclude at 14.78 per cent. The India VIX, the fear factor, a key market volatility indicator, closed the week at 13.69 per cent and seems to be favourable for bulls as it remained below all key moving averages for another week. It was down by 1.4 per cent for the week, extending weakness for the fourth consecutive week. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) for the weekwas 0.93.

Technically, Nifty is forming lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart, indicating market weakness. Traders should view any upsidemove as a selling opportunity. In the upcoming session, Nifty is likely to face resistance at 22,800, with 22,000 acting as support. The Nifty is expected to be in the broad range of 22,000-23,000 in the upcoming sessions. Expect more and more stock specific action in coming days. Stocks looking goodare Adani Green, BEL, D Mart, ITC, JSW Steel, Laurus Labs, NTPC, Tata Steel and Solar Inds. Stocks looking weak Exide Inds, Godrej Properties, ICICI Prudential, Patanjali, Tata Technologies and Sona Comstar.

Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd

Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd is a pan-India-based hospitalchain, which is principally engaged in the business of rendering medical andhealthcare services. Starting as a Single Hospital in a small town calledNellore in Andhra Pradesh, KIMS has now grown into 12 centres ofexcellence with 4000 beds and 40 specialities and super specialities spreadacross three states of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra andpoised to step into Karnataka shortly.

The company’s departments includeaccident, Alzheimer center, andrology and infertility center, paediatricobesity, paediatric oncology, paediatric oncology and haematology center,paediatric orthopaedics and rheumatology, paediatric renal center,paediatric surgical center, female urology center, fertility center,gastrointestinal oncology, general surgery, heart wellness center,hepatobiliary surgery center, and others. Its medical technologies include 4-Arm HD da Vinci Robotic Surgical System, O-Arm Scanner, Novalis TxLinear Accelerator, 3 Tesla MRI, EBUS, Spy Glass, Mako Robotic for KneeReplacement, Impella, and others.

The company’s institutes include Instituteof Cardiac Sciences, Institute of Dental Science, Institute ofGastroenterology & Hepatology, Institute of Heart & Lung Transplantation,among others. It is to be noted that 190 lung transplants have beenperformed in just three years at KIMS, a record in the country. KIMS is thefirst hospital in South India to get American Accreditation Commission

International (AACI) and is also accredited by the National AccreditationBoard for Hospitals & Healthcare Providers (NABH) and the NationalAccreditation Board for Testing and Calibration Laboratories (NABL). Buy ondeclines for medium term target price of Rs875.

(The author is a senior maket analyst and former vice- chairman, Andhra Pradesh State Planning Board)