India’s retail inflation jumps 5.49 pc over high base effect, weather conditions

New Delhi: India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation jumped 5.49 per cent in the month of September, up from 3.65 per cent in August, due to high base effect and weather conditions, the government said on Monday.

The year-on-year inflation rate, based on the All India Consumer Price Index (CPI), for the month of September was 5.49 per cent. Corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban areas were 5.87 per cent and 5.05 per cent, respectively.

The inflation rate based on the All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) number was 9.24 per cent (provisional) for the month of September.

The housing inflation rate was 2.78 per cent, up from 2.66 per cent in August, for the urban sector.

According to the data provided by the Ministry of Statistics, the all-India electricity index and inflation for the month of September were 162.5 and 5.45 per cent, respectively.

"During the month of September, 2024, a significant decline in inflation is observed in pulses and products, spices, meat and fish and sugar and confectionery sub-group," the data showed.

According to experts, the rise in retail inflation is particularly in the aftermath of erratic monsoon patterns.

Apurva Sheth from SAMCO Securities said that the RBI had probably expected a hardening of inflation and that's why, it chose to hold on to the rates in the monetary policy announcement last week.

"It seems that RBI will take a cautious stance going ahead and will not be in a hurry into rate cuts like its global peers," Sheth added.

However, with core inflation still under control, the broader inflation narrative remains primarily food-driven, said analysts. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to average around 4.5 per cent for FY25, with RBI maintaining a cautious stance on monetary policy. The central bank is likely to wait for sustained evidence of easing price pressures before making any rate adjustments, said Arsh Mogre from Prabhudas Lilladher.